Chronicling the economic costs of the lockdown

From workers to businesses, all segments have been devastated. India can’t afford the shutdown any longer

The coronavirus disease (Covid-19)-induced pandemic has brought with it days of dark gloom. But last Friday, this feeling was exacerbated with the shocking news that 16 people were run over by a train in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. Having lost their livelihood, they were making the painful trek home from their workplace. It was heartrending to see pictures of their meagre possessions and food scattered on the tracks on which they lost their lives.

Just two days before the Aurangabad incident, hundreds of kilometres away, there was a horrific incident, in which a poor migrant couple died. Unable to find work and faced with hunger and poverty, Krishna Sahu, a daily wage labourer set off on his bicycle to his village in Jharkhand. He could find no other form of conveyance. Travelling with his wife and two children, he was hit by a speeding vehicle. He and his wife died of injuries and the children are being treated in a hospital. We can only hope that they survive. But what will happen to them? Who will care for them after they are discharged? I am filled with fear for these two children who have lost everything they knew and loved.

The image of blood-stained rotis on the rail tracks in Aurangabad will stay with us for a long time. Those who died came from their distant homes to earn enough to be able to eat these and send whatever was left to their families who depended on them. Krishna Sahu undertook his fateful journey in the hope of getting help in his village.

A day before Sahu and his wife died, we saw photographs of Sion Hospital in Mumbai where patients were in beds alongside dead bodies that had been sealed in bags. But then, this is what happens when a country spends less than 2% of its GDP on health. It is clear that however hard the Centre might try, it is not able to manage the crisis brought on by the pandemic. It needs all the help it can get and it must engage civil society in this battle.

The situation in many parts of the country is worrying. In Kathua (Jammu and Kashmir), when workers had to undergo a salary cut, they began rioting. Army vehicles on the roads became a target of their anger. In Haldwani (Uttarakhand), dozens of daily wage workers staged a dharna. Their grievance was that despite being deprived of their livelihood, they were being prevented from going home even though they were willing to make the long journey using their own means. Some migrant workers blocked a road near Agra when they were stopped by the security personnel. Such incidents are being witnessed in several places.

Several state governments have appealed to factory owners and businessmen not to cut salaries or terminate employment for poor workers. In fact, some district magistrates raised this issue with some businessmen.

Their explanation was that they had paid the full wages to their workers for March and it was not possible to go forward with no income coming in from their businesses and no support from the government. When the administration tried to arm-twist them into paying, their reply was that they were willing to go jail as they had no means to pay their workers.

Many big corporate houses are not in favour of laying-off workers, but the circumstances brought about by the prolonged lockdown and stalled economic activity might force their hand.

Indeed, joblessness has been growing rapidly. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy says that when the lockdown was declared, the unemployment rate in the country was around 7%; and 50 days into the lockdown, it has already touched 27%. Another study suggests that 10 million agricultural labourers in Maharashtra are now jobless. 7.5 million workers in Uttar Pradesh, 6.8 million in Tamil Nadu, 5.2 million in Gujarat, and 4.7 million in West Bengal are also out of work. International agencies predict either a sharp slowdown in growth or an outright recession.

The big question now is whether to prolong the lockdown or to get the wheels of the economy moving. The lockdown is saving lives. But it is like riding a tiger which is impossible to dismount. We have to work out a way to save lives and livelihoods at the same time. How can we do this?

One approach that is fraught with danger is to adopt the course suggested by United States President Donald Trump. While announcing his plan to lift the lockdown, he said, “There’ll be more deaths, ... the virus will pass, with or without a vaccine”. Then he added, “People are losing their jobs. We have to bring it back, and that’s what we’re doing. We can’t sit in the house for the next three years.” Some European countries have also adopted this approach. Sweden had refused to implement any lockdown, except for some safety measures.

India has been far more cautious but perhaps the time has come to change course. It is time to get the wheels of business moving. But this must come with strict measures such as enforcement of physical distancing. The dangers cannot be understated but we simply cannot afford to lock down the country any further.