Covid-19: What you need to know today
In the 10 days between May 1 and May 10 (both included), six states accounted for 91% of average daily deaths from Covid-19 in India. Two of them, Maharashtra and Gujarat, accounted for 66%.
The six states accounted for 86% of all deaths in the country arising from the pandemic till May 10, and 64% of all cases.
There are states that are registering more cases than some of these states, but in terms of the number of deaths from Covid-19, these are the top six. Delhi and Tamil Nadu see more cases a day, but, on average, have seen fewer deaths in the 10-day period considered. Whichever way you look at it, that is a reflection of the quality of the public health system in these states – they are getting more cases but fewer people are dying. To be sure, there has been some confusion over the number of deaths in Delhi, with the hospital records showing one number and the government bulletin, another. But with a new protocol that requires hospitals to report deaths in time, this should pass.
Gujarat, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh are outliers in terms of the Total cases Total deaths fatality rate – theirs is so far so far much higher than the
national one (Gujarat’s 37 22,171 832 is the highest). Maharashtra, despite 28 8,195 493
accounting for almost 8 1,939 113 a third of all cases in
India, accounts for 8 3,614 215
just over a third of all 3,753 107 deaths because of
Covid-19 in the country 3,467 79 – its death rate is 99 67,085 2,140 only marginally
higher than the *Per day /million population (1-10 May)
national one. Three of the six states – West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh – are also testing fewer people per million a day than the daily national average.
As India exits the lockdown, albeit in stages, it would do well to focus on states accounting for the most deaths, and those that are not testing enough. With the focus moving to mitigation from prevention – it clearly has, even as the ministry of health continues to stick to its claim about the absence of community transmission in its briefings – public health systems should be able to treat those who require hospitalisation, and bring down the number of deaths. Widespread testing will help policymakers and public health workers measure the extent of the coronavirus disease’s prevalence, protect the most vulnerable (people over the age of 65 or 70), and track the progress of the disease in India’s hinterland, which is seeing an influx of returning migrant workers.
As mentioned in this column yesterday, it does look like domestic flights will soon restart – a detailed note on guidelines for flying, once the lockdown ends, did the rounds on Tuesday. It makes flying cumbersome, and places inconvenient restrictions, but at this stage, just the prospect of being able to fly again should bring cheer to people who have a pressing need to travel .
The note mentions that the government’s contacttracing app Aarogya Setu will be mandatory for fliers – earlier in the day on Tuesday, Railways said that the app would be mandatory for rail passengers too. Rail services from Delhi to and from 15 other cities restarted on Tuesday. It is expected that flights will start next week, although there is no confirmation of this yet.
The biggest step towards a return to normalcy came late on Tuesday evening when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an address to the nation, said his government would announce, over the following few days, a package for the economy worth a cool ~20 lakh crore. That’s a little less than 10% of GDP, and while the details are awaited (and need to be analysed), if at least some of it is in the form of direct payments, some, credit guarantees, and the rest, government spending, it should help. But more on this tomorrow.