Math model may help map trajectory

NEWDELHI: India will soon have a so-called super (mathematical) model for Covid-19 that can shed light on the likely trajectory of the pandemic in India, including details of when and where it is most likely to spread; its crests and troughs; and the number of ICU beds and ventilators that may be needed.

The Department of Science and Technology (DST) has started work on a Covid-19 “Indian National Supermodel” to help monitor the future transmission of infection, thus aiding decisions involving the readiness of the health system and other mitigation measures, the ministry of science and technology said on Saturday. Numerous mathematical models for Covid-19 forecasting and surveillance are being worked out by investigators funded by DSTSERB (Science and Engineering Research Board) and other agencies.

Professor M Vidyasagar, fellow of SERB and national professor at IIT Hyderabad said “We have been asked to deliver on four things—fine grained spatiotemporal progression of Covid 19; medical inventory prediction which includes how many PPE (kits), ventilators, are needed ; policies like non pharmaceutical interventions and economic optimization such as working with a reduced workforce.”

The team is likely to present its initial findings based on the super model by June-end. Professor Vidyasagar said team will be looking at models used in Europe, US and other countries and validate them. “The model will entirely rely only on data relevant to Covid-19, and also have an adaptive built-in component to learn from newer trends in the data. It will aggregate successful evidence-based mathematical and statistical forecasting models and include best predictive analytics for robust forecasting of infectious disease spread. The supermodel could be used by policymakers in India and the world to overcome difficulties in predicting rate of spread and how it would burden healthcare sector, thereby curbing the epidemic,” statement by ministry of science and technology said.

As part of this initiative, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research and the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore will co-ordinate to connect and work with all Covid-19 modelling projects and programs in the country.