Evaluating Shinzo Abe’s record in office

When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his pending resignation last week for health reasons, he had been in office for nearly eight years. But even that wasn’t long enough to fulfill the potential of his premiership.

Abe will rightfully be remembered for the many changes he did manage to push through. His three-pronged “Abenomics” program of loose monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms scored some initial successes — boosting growth, stocks and employment. His government brought an unprecedented number of women into the workplace and immigrants into the country. Corporate governance reforms have begun to change the complexion of boards and behavior in Japan Inc. And Abe bolstered Japan’s geopolitical standing.

Yet whoever follows Abe will confront challenges almost as great as he did. The fact is growth, wages and inflation never really picked up sustainably; now, after pandemic-related lockdowns, the economy has shrunk to the size it was before Abe took charge. Even in areas where Abe made a good start, much work remains. The precariousness of most women’s jobs has been revealed by the pandemic. Many of the business reforms promoted by Abe’s government ended up being more limited than originally envisioned. Broader changes will be required if Japan is to attract the number and quality of immigrants the country really needs.

Abe can claim perhaps his greatest achievements in the international arena, where he has built Japan into a forceful advocate for the liberal, rulesbased global order, both in partnership with the US and, when it comes to free trade, on its own. He has also been instrumental in developing a regional response to China, as well as providing a much-needed alternative to Chinese investment around the world. Yet here, too, one wonders what more could’ve been accomplished had Abe avoided unnecessary distractions, such as a futile trade spat with South Korea and a long and controversial campaign to revise Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution — the so-called peace clause. Such efforts may help explain why Abe backed off from pushing more drastic economic reforms. If Japan is to meet its challenges, his successors cannot afford to make the same mistake.

It will take many months before the [Indian] economy … registers positive growth