China’s 8.5 ton space lab set to fall to earth

NEW DELHI: China’s Tiangong-1 space laboratory, held up as a symbol of the country’s ambitions in space when it was launched in 2011, is out of control and set to crash to the earth by the end of March, according to a media report.

In the most likely scenario, the 8.5-tonne space lab will largely burn up as it enters the earth’s atmosphere over the ocean and a few parts will sink to the sea floor, CNN quoted experts as saying.

The worst scenario would be the Tiangong-1 or “Heavenly Palace” spacecraft re-entering “over a highly populated area, and a few largest chunks hit the ground, with perhaps some minor property damage”, said Jonathan Mcdowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

“But this has never happened in the 60-year history of re-entering space debris. The chances are small,” he said.

Though the risk of the spacecraft causing damage on re-entry was described by CNN as “miniscule”, the loss of control over Tiangong-1 will impact China’s plans to emerge as a space superpower.

“They have a PR embarrassment on their hands,” Mcdowell said. “The actual danger is small, but it is accepted international best practice nowadays that objects that big shouldn’t be able to fall out of the sky in this manner.”

The 40-foot Tiangong-1, which was launched in Septmeber 2011, and its successor – Tiangong-2, launched in 2016 – were part of China’s plans to build and put into space a 20-tonne space station that is expected to launch around 2022.

Tiangong-1 docked with the Shenzhou-10 spaceship in 2013, and mastering this docking manoeuvre is necessary for developing a space station, experts have said. The Tiangong-1 was last used by astronauts in 2013.

“The original plan was for it to be retired soon after and sent under control into the ocean, but they were worried that its successor, Tiangong-2, might not get into orbit successfully, so they decided to keep the Tiangong-1 around as a backup,” Mcdowell said.