An unstable world brings Modi and Xi together, for now
NEW DELHI: When the going gets tough, the summits get going. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet this week in Wuhan to discuss the state of the world rather than the state of bilateral relations. Mutual concern about a crumbling global system is behind New Delhi and Beijing’s desire to set aside two years of confrontation and hold discussions at the highest level — only the two leaders, national security advisors, foreign ministers and foreign secretaries.
Irritations like the border dispute are being kept off the agenda. Loose, informal discussions on global concerns such as trade, terrorism and the like will be on the list. The basis of the so-called “reset” in India-china relations was outlined publicly by ex-foreign secretary S Jaishankar at the Mint Asia-ht Leadership Summit in Singapore on April 13, say senior Indian sources. He noted that with a new global order possibly emerging, there had to be more “common ground between players” and it was important for larger countries “even as they compete, to find common grounds and set rules”.
Ashok Kantha, former Indian ambassador to China, says the process of temperature control began at the Xiamen BRICS summit last September, just weeks after the Doklam crisis ended. When Indians and Chinese officials met, it was clear neither side wanted a “repeat of the past year”. In the discussions over the next few months, the two governments agreed larger issues needed addressing. Indian officials say it had been clear even earlier that China was becoming increasingly concerned about global instability. In bilateral discussions, the Chinese would quiz Indians about the views of US President Donald Trump regarding various issues. Beijing has also been alarmed at Islamic militancy in West Asia and renewed fighting in Afghanistan. Beijing sees Pakistan and even Russia as playing unhelpful roles in these regions. North Korea and the looming trade war with the US have only added to China’s prioritising stability above all else.
Broadly, say a number of sources, amid all this turmoil Xi Jinping sees the Modi regime as a source of stability. As MIT China expert M Taylor Fravel has noted, “Contrary to the conventional wisdom, China views India’s rise as a positive development.” Beijing, which has struggled to restructure its economy the past few years, is also impressed with Modi’s ability to carry out economic reforms and maintain growth rates.
New Delhi, for its part, believes it has successfully confronted China on three counts — securing the Dalai Lama’s succession, opposing the Belt Road Initiative and enforcing the status quo in Doklam — and can afford to take a break during a year of domestic consolidation. None of these issues have been settled and there is expectation the two will cross swords over them again.
Senior Indian officials say there is no strategic shift in Indiachina relations. New Delhi will seek to undermine the Belt Road Initiative. China will block India from entering the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Both will contend with each other for Indian Ocean dominance. For now, the two countries have agreed the new priority is greater engagement over a world fraying at the edges. There is so much instability, a senior Indian official noted recently, “no government has a grand strategy today.”