‘Saudi First’ is changing the contours of West Asia
Saudi Arabia’s nationalism is drowning out extremist Islamism, but is accompanied by the drumbeat of war
Can nationalism ever be a good thing? It depends. The lack of response by Arab states to the Israeli military’s recent attack on Palestinian protestors illustrates the regional changes that have come with a ‘Saudi First’ nationalist philosophy.
This is hardly the first time in recent months that Saudi nationalism has trumped pan-islamist concerns. After US President Donald Trump’s unilateral declaration on Jerusalem’s status on December 6, Riyadh largely ignored the stateless Palestinians’ pleas for solidarity. It was part of the ‘Firstism’ agenda, a militant unilateralism that Saudi Arabia crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud shares with Trump.
The year began with nationalism being presented in three wildly contrasting ways.
At Davos 2018, India’s Narendra Modi, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel warned against the false satiety induced by anti-globalisation. There was Trump’s well-larded defence of ‘America First’. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister told Davos there are “two visions” in the region, “one of light … the other of darkness and sectarianism.” Iran, he said, was the “darkness”.
That bold declaration of muscular Saudi nationalism against Iran was significant, because it is unafraid to pick fights and openly identifies enemies against which Saudi citizens can rally. The new mood may be significant in its elevation of an aspirational feelgood nationalism over Wahhabi Islamism.
Consider Vision 2030, the crown prince’s agenda for reform. It has downgraded the authority of the Wahhabi establishment, loosened social controls, embraced a more secular nationalism, and launched a vicious war of words against Shia Iran.
There is another impetus too for enhanced Saudi nationalism. Islamism has proved to be a dangerously unmanageable force.
Nationalism is hardly a new idea for Saudi Arabia. But Saudi nationalism circa 2018 is different. It is an extension of the so-called Salman Doctrine that became evident in early 2015, within weeks of the elderly Salman’s accession and the rise to prominence of the son. That was when the ruinous Saudi military campaign in Yemen began. It was followed in 2017 by other bold interventionist moves, not least the blockade against Qatar and the attempted ouster of Lebanon’s prime minister. None of these have gone well.
But the campaign against Iran is different. America First has aligned itself with Saudi First. The clarion call to nationalism appears to be drowning out everything else, including Islamism. This would be good news for India and the rest of the world if it weren’t accompanied by the drumbeat of war.