Modi juggernaut faces Didi crash test
Trinamool Congress is gearing up to emerge as the biggest regional political grouping in India. It wants to command a significant share of the antibjp political space
The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), born 20 years ago in 1998, has been credited for two of its major achievements.
One, it’s the only Congress offshoot to taste regular political success. The party has twice formed government in a state, and its leader Mamata Banerjee has been cabinet minister three times and minister of state once in her parliamentary career spanning 25 years.
Two, the party ended the Left’s 34-year rule in West Bengal, ruthlessly diminishing the communists’ clout in national politics.
The summer of 2019, however, will see an altogether different election for this regional powerhouse. This time, Trinamool wants Banerjee as the kingmaker of an anti-bjp government Prime Minister.
“In 2019, Mamata Banerjee will play the lead role, Bengal will play the lead role,” Trinamool’s Rajya Sabha floor leader Derek O’brien claimed.
The Left, however, doesn’t see that happening. “Mamata or Trinamool’s utility is to try to extinguish Left parties. You can’t lead a Federal Front if you don’t respect democracy. Mamata has (taken) democracy to the crematorium. In Bengal, BJP’S rise is co-terminus with Mamata’s rise,” said CPIM politburo leader Md Salim.
Just as Trinamool’s ambitions have soared, so have preparations in the party to emerge as the biggest regional political grouping in India and command a significant space in the anti-bjp political space.
The state panchayat elections are if not its seen as the first step for the party. In a state like West Bengal, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats and a robust panchayat system, winning panchayat polls helps gain a solid grip at the grassroot level network of the party. As things stand today, amid allegations of rampant violence (which also prevented over a third of the seats from being contested), the Trinamool is set to sweep the rural polls.
In 2008, the Left Front, for the first time lost the panchayat polls in West Bengal. The following year, Banerjee gained more seats than the red brigade in the Lok Sabha. Two years later, it swept the assembly polls.
The party has also galvanised its physical presence in Delhi. O’brien is almost regularly available and runs the party’s support team from Delhi. Banerjee’s trips to Delhi have multiplied, too. And for all other seasons, there’s a team of 34 Mps—making Trinamool the largest party in Parliament after BJP, Congress and AIADMK.
The efforts have paid dividends too. Banerjee became the first leader to reach out to Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi chief minister and now, the two sides share best relations. Her communication channels with her Odisha counterpart Navin Patnaik and Bihar’s Nitish Kumar (even after the latter allied with the BJP) are active. Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao flew down to Kolkata last month to support her efforts for a federal front.
She organised a sort of a political coup when Shiv Sena and Aam Admi Party, the latter famous for its political inhibitions, marched together to Rashtrapati Bhavan under the Trinamool’s leadership against demonetisation.
And Last week, DMK leader MK Stalin tweeted, “DMK has always stood for the unity of regional parties and stronger federal co-operation. I endorse the efforts of @Mamataofficial to bring together various political parties to oppose the autocratic and antidemo- cratic rule of the BJP.”
But these are no guarantees that Trinamool’s mid-summer night’s dream will come true.
For, even if the BJP is defeated, no federal or anti-bjp front can come to power without the support of the Congress party.
In close circles, Banerjee has expressed her reservation about working under Congress’ leadership. While she has a cordial rapport with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, for her party, “Rahul is too junior and without credentials to be seen as a possible PM,” according to a senior Trinamool leader. And Trinamool believes other parties too may feel the same.
“Mamata Banerjee’s development and credibility goes way beyond Bengal. People from different regions are looking at her because of her credibility. And because of her credibility, she has acceptability,” O’brien argues.
The Congress, however, sees things differently. In a recent interview to this paper, Congress’ key strategist Jairam Ramesh bluntly stated, “Mamata Banerjee leads a West Bengal party. K Chandrashekar Rao will not get a seat outside Telangana. The two national parties are Congress and BJP.”
The simple number game also doesn’t help realise an anti-bjp government without the Congress. Even if Trinamool sweeps West Bengal, SP and BSP win all seats in UP, TDP and TRS bags their respective states, the collective strength of regional parties will fall much short of the required number of 272 to get the majority in Lok Sabha.
Trinamool leadership has suggested that Congress should consider joining the federal front and support the initiative—in other words, the Congress should allow a chief minister from regional parties. But that model, first with HD Devegowda and then with Indra Kumar Gujral, failed miserably during the period of 1996-98. As a result, the BJP came to power.
While pundits believe that Trinamool will do extremely well in the state, the leadership question, however, will only be decided after the polls. If the Congress rejuvenates itself under Rahul’s leadership, it may not be willing to give the steering of the federal front’s bandwagon to other parties.
“Trinamool has no politics of its own. Their stand on secularism is superficial. She (Mamata) hasn’t taken any step to challenge BJP-RSS in the state and nationally. You will not find a single party literature against RSS’ politics,” said Salim.
As things stand today, All India Trinamool Congress is set to retain its absolute majority in West Bengal. But whether it can evolve as a national kingmaker from being a regional force, is the only question Didi’s followers are keen to get an answer. Some of them also want to see Banerjee at Lok Kayna Marg—a feat that no Bengali has achieved so far.
TMC SUGGESTED THAT CONG SHOULD CONSIDER JOINING THE FEDERAL FRONT AND SUPPORT THE INITIATIVE—THAT IS, CONGRESS SHOULD ALLOW A CHIEF MINISTER FROM REGIONAL PARTIES