Turkey’s democratic oppn tests cracks in Erdogan’s iron grip

President, ruling AK Parti face an unexpectedly strong challenge from revitalised rivals

ISTANBUL: When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called early elections two months ago, he seemed assured of victory. But as Sunday’s vote approaches, the man who has transformed Turkey over 15 years in power appears increasingly vulnerable.

The question will be, just how vulnerable?

The vote will be watched far beyond Turkey’s borders for what it will decide about the direction of the country — whether it continues down the path of populist authoritarianism with Erdogan, or takes a turn for democratic change.

A skilful politician with a fervent support base, Erdogan still leads in the polls. But dissatisfaction over a downturn in the economy is spreading. So is alarm over Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism.

“A strong Turkey needs a strong leader,” Erdogan bellowed in his final Istanbul campaign rally last week. “May God let us continue on this path by becoming more powerful.”

Whether Erdogan can secure the outright victory he wants by gaining 50% of the vote — avoiding a runoff — may depend on how deeply the wariness and unhappiness with his rule have unsettled his core supporters.

The collapse of agriculture, a plunge in the value of the lira and a rise in food prices may deliver Erdogan a shock. Much of his support has been among conservative rural people.

There are signs of defections, said Ozer Sencar, who runs the independent Metropoll polling agency, noting that some formerly loyal voters had voted against Erdogan in last year’s referendum to expand the powers of the presidency.

But the state of emergency Erdogan snapped in place almost two years ago after a failed coup has allowed the government to tilt the playing field greatly in its favour.

Erdogan has used the extra powers to jail political opponents, including nine Kurdish members of parliament and dozens of Kurdish party officials, as well as 70,000 students and activists and tens of thousands of members of the military and public employees. Demonstrations are banned, and access to national television is tightly controlled.

Erdogan also controls all the levers of power, rules by decree under a state of emergency and can count on a tame judiciary and presidential guard.

But signs of disaffection are visible. Supporters declare their love for Erdogan, yet many leave his rallies halfway through his speeches.

Former Islamist allies who have turned against him are the most outspoken.

“You cannot have one man with all the power,” Temel Karamollaoglu, leader of the small Felicity Party, told supporters. “You cannot expect any justice from judges receiving orders from the top.”