Monsoon playing catch up, Met warns of deficit

47% chance that Augustseptember rain will be below average

NEW DELHI: Rains in August and September will have to be better than expected for the monsoon this year to be considered normal,the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated in its latest update. Weather experts are concerned that an emerging El Niño weather phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean may cause a rain deficit in the last two months of the June-to-september monsoon.

IMD has predicted that in August and September, the rainfall will be 95% of the Long Period Average error margin of ± 8%. In June, the rainfall was 95% of the long period average (LPA) while in July it was 94% of the LPA.

“If the August-september forecast is 100% accurate, then rains for the entire monsoon season will be 95% of the LPA,” M. Mohapatra, a senior official at IMD, said. That would mean below normal rainfall, because the met agency considers it a normal monsoon if the rains are between 96% and 104% of LPA of of 887 mm. Rainfall in August and September has to be at the higher end of the error margin for the monsoon to be deemed normal.

The IMD has not updated its overall forecast for the monsoon that was for 97% of the LPA, with a model error of ±4%.

Normal monsoon rain is crucial for agriculture in Asia’s third largest economy, particularly the summer-sown Kharif crop that accounts for half of India’s food output. Sixty percent of India’s crop area lacks access to assured irrigation.

A spell of good rains could keep a lid on inflation by holding down food prices, potentially tempting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to bring forward general elections due in May 2019. Lower rainfall could add to the woes of those dependent on agriculture for a livelihood. Indian farmers, who have been hitting the streets to protest low income levels, are a crucial vote bank for a poll-bound Modi, who has set an ambitious target of doubling farmer income by 2022.

Farmers have planted summer crops on 73.8 million hectares (182.3 million acres) of land as of July 27, down 7.5 percent from a year ago, the Department of Agriculture Cooperation and Farmers Welfare said.

India is the world’s biggest producer of cotton and pulses and the second-biggest producer of sugar and rice. The IMD had forecast earlier that India in 2018 would receive rainfall measuring 97 percent of the long-term average.

The weather forecasting agency has accurately forecast the monsoon season only once in every five years over the last two decades, even after allowing for a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, official data shows.

NORMAL MONSOON RAIN IS CRUCIAL FOR AGRICULTURE IN THE COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE KHARIF CROP