Campaigning under the shadow of terror
Border tensions have derailed election season in Kashmir, where politicians are afraid to campaign in full force, while In Jammu, a surge of nationalism has taken centre stage
Five weeks ago, Ghulam Ahmad Mir’s election campaign was just taking off. The senior Congress leader had started to put his team together and reach out to old supporters in his native town of Dooru in south Kashmir’s Anantnag.
But just as his campaign was picking up steam, a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden car into a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy, killing 40 soldiers. The February 14 attack derailed the election build-up in the Muslim-dominated Valley as tensions ran high at the border and Kashmir was roiled by protests – first over the attacks, and then over a ban on the state chapter of the Jamaat-e-islami.
Mir, like many of his political colleagues across the Valley, now says that the political momentum has been broken and it would be a tough campaign.“we live at ground zero and are worried how situation is panning out…it will take time to gain the momentum again. Here everyone is fearful now,’’ he said.
Mir’s stance appeared to have been backed last week by the Election Commission, which decided to hold elections for Anantnag in three phases, and said the situation was not conducive for holding assembly polls.
Local residents say not only are mainstream politicians afraid to campaign in full force – especially in the militancy hotbed of south Kashmir where Pulwama and Anantnag are located – but also that common people are unsure whether to turn up to vote in the face of boycott calls.
“The Pulwama attack was a setback and will have direct impact on mainstream politicians who were trying to start campaigns in different parts of Kashmir by organising meetings and rallies,’’ said Abdul Hamid Gania, who hails from Anantnag town.the state’s chief electoral officer Shalinder Kumar said the Pulwama attack has put the administration on alert. “All necessary measures have been taken to ensure free and fair elections. We have to devise our own mechanism to avert that type of situation,” he said.
A senior police officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he hoped that things would be back on track soon. “The suicide attack was big but additional security will be given to the political leaders to resume their activities.’’
In Hindu-dominated Jammu, the attacks and tensions have fuelled a surge of nationalism that experts say will help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won both seats in the region the last time, tide over anti-incumbency and discontent over jobs, and the handling of the Kathua rape case in 2018. “The BJP has an edge over the Congress and other parties in Jammu, and recent events in Pulwama and the cross-border attacks will have impact in Jammu and its adjoining areas,’’ said Pervaz Majeed, assistant professor at a government college in north Kashmir. And, in Ladakh, where elections are always a contest between Buddhist-dominated Leh and Muslim-dominated Kargil, the BJP is somewhat on the back foot after its MP, Thupstan Chhewang, resigned last year and accused the party of doing little for the region.
ROCKY HISTORY
Elections in Jammu and Kashmir always play out differently in the Valley, where the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC) dominate, and in Jammu, where the BJP and Congress have a stronger presence.
In 2014, riding on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP swept Jammu. The PDP won all three seats in Kashmir, while the Nc-congress combine drew a blank. The PDP and BJP emerged as the two largest parties in the assembly elections, held simultaneously, and formed the state government – described as a coalition of extremes given the difference in political ideologies.
But right from the start, the coalition government was saddled with problems that only grew worse once then chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, seen as the architect of the alliance, died in 2016. His daughter and PDP chief, Mehbooba Mufti, took over but had to resign last June after the BJP pulled out of the alliance.
The assembly was controversially dissolved by governor Satya Pal Malik in November, hours after the PDP, NC and Congress came together to stake claim to form the next government. A rival claim was made by the two-member Peoples Conference, which said it had the backing of the BJP and 18 other legislators.
Mehbooba Mufti’s popularity in the Valley plummeted in 2016, when Kashmir was roiled by angry protests over the killing of Hijbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani. After her resignation, the PDP faced desertions from its former legislators, ministers and senior leaders, and experts now say it could be a big consolation for the party if it manages to win even one of the three seats in Kashmir.
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY
The PDP faces a problem in campaigning because its traditional stronghold of south Kashmir – where its leaders would often attend funerals of militants in the early 2000s – is increasingly hostile to mainstream politicians, and those who hold small rallies and town corner meetings are now feeling intimidated by militant threats, such as that by Hizbul Mujahideen’s Riyaz Naikoo, of more attacks.
The PDP youth president, Waheed ur Rehman Parra, admitted that the attacks have changed the situation but added that his party would do well based on its agenda of peace. “We will always follow our policy that dialogue is only solution to our problems.’’ In private, many leaders from the party say that the party has a greater chance of doing well in the Valley after ending its alliance with the BJP.
Provincial president of the NC, Nasir Aslam Wani, said his party was preparing for the polls for the last eight months. “Our position is very strong this time.”
Talks between the NC and the Congress are reported to be deadlocked over disagreement in seat-sharing in Kashmir, especially the Anantnag seat.
ARITHMETIC, CHEMISTRY
In Jammu, rising discontent over perceived injustice to the region and slow growth of jobs spilled over in 2018, when many in the region erupted in anger over a priest and his son being charged for the rape and murder of an eight-year-old nomadic Muslim girl.
Rallies were taken out in support of the accused, and a number of prominent politicians from the BJP – including minister Lal Singh, who was later suspended -came out in support of them.
In the Lok Sabha elections, this might not matter because much of the anger is directed against the local leadership. “There could be anger against local leadership in Jammu region but people are very much with Prime Minister Modi and will vote for him. The results will be a repeat of 2014,’’ said BJP legislator Surinder Amberdar.
But there could be more problems for the BJP. Singh, along with other dissidents, is planning a party of his own and is likely to contest the polls, leading to a possible fragmentation of Hindu votes.
In Ladakh, the grant of divisional status to the region could give an edge to the BJP in the Leh region. But opposition from Kargil, and a joint Opposition candidate for the Lok Sabha polls, could see the BJP run close on that seat.
“Our party has done lot of work for in Ladakh, especially with PM Modi recently announcing a big package for region. The grant of divisional status to Leh and Kargil are big achievements. But Ladakh elections are held on the basis of Leh and Kargil politics and whosoever manages to remain undivided will emerge victorious,’’ said BJP’S Ladakh in-charge Chering Dorjay.
“Despite Ladakh getting divisional status, it will be tough for BJP there due to resignation of its sitting MP,” said Majeed.
Anurag Gangal, a professor of political science at Jammu University gave the edge to the BJP. “Still, it will be the poll management and the local issues which are going to decisive for any party.’’
NC president Farooq Abdullah is likely to seek re-election from Srinagar. His party lost its bastion in 2014 but won it back in a by-election in 2016.
For north Kashmir’s Baramulla seat, the PDP has replaced sitting MP Muzaffar Baig with trade union leader Abdul Qayoom Wani, who will fight the NC’S Akbar lone, a former minister. It is here that Sajjad Lone’s Peoples Conference could be a spoiler because the party’s base is in north Kashmir.
Anantnag is a point of prestige for the PDP and party wants a strong candidate. In the last Lok Sabha polls, Mehbooba Mufti had won the election from Anantnag. The BJP is confident of retaining the Jammu and Udhampur seats, which the party had won with a comfortable margin, especially after a good show in the municipal and local body polls last year.