All eyes on Maha, Haryana verdict today
Leads expected to become clear by noon, final outcome to come later in the evening
NEWDELHI/MUMBAI/CHANDIGARH: All eyes will be on the ballot in Maharashtra and Haryana on Thursday as the Election Commission of India (ECI) begins counting of votes for the assembly polls, even as a majority of exit polls predict the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would return to power in both the states.
In Maharashtra, 60.5% of the electorate turned out to exercise their franchise on October 21. In Haryana, the turnout was 65%. Bypolls for 51 assembly constituencies, across 16 states and one Union Territory, and two Lok Sabha seats, one in Bihar and one in Maharashtra, were also held.
Counting of votes will begin early Thursday morning with leads getting clear around noon.
In both Maharashtra and states, chief ministers from the BJP, Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar, are seeking second terms even as the Congress and other regional forces seek to challenge the saffron party’s dominance in the first set of polls after the summer general elections.
If the exit polls turn out to be correct, the results will reinforce the BJP’S steady rise as a hegemonic force in Indian politics, cement Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity further, help it sustain the gains it made in the Lok Sabha elections, establish it as the primary political force in both the states, signal its expansion among various social groups, and mark the rise of both Khattar and Fadnavis as important regional leaders of the party.
It will also reflect that the Congress, reeling from the electoral loss in the Lok Sabha, has not been able to recover electorally, raise questions about the party’s national leadership, deepen factionalism and internal blame game, dampen the morale of the rank and file further, and further deplete its shrinking social base. The outcome will be seen as a sign of the continued crisis in India’s regional parties, especially those outside the fold of the Bjp-led National Democratic Alliance.
Maharashtra has 288 assembly constituencies. In 2014, the BJP, its current ally the Shiv Sena, the Congress, and the grand old party’s current ally the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) contested the polls separately. The BJP won 122 seats, the Sena 63, the Congress won a historic low of 42 seats, and the NCP got 41 seats. The BJP and Sena eventually got into a post-poll partnership.
Haryana has 90 assembly seats. In 2014, the BJP won 47 seats, enabling it to form the government for the first time on its own. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) of Om Prakash Chautala, which has since split with the emergence of a splinter, Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), won 31 seats. The Congress was a distant third with 15 seats.
The BJP has waged a more energetic campaign in the two states — relying both on the appeal of Modi, who campaigned actively, and the track record of the state governments. While Congress president Sonia Gandhi has not campaigned on the ground, former president Rahul Gandhi addressed public rallies in both the states. The two states have their own specific contours.
In Maharashtra, the battle is bipolar with the BJP-SHIV Sena constituting one pole and the Congress- NCP the other. This is different from the 2014 assembly polls when all four parties fought separately. This is also the first time that while being a part of the same alliance, the BJP is contesting more seats than the Sena in the state, firmly establishing it as the senior partner. Chief minister Fadnavis is seen to have emerged as a leader in his own right, and success in this election could put him in the race for a spot in the national leadership at some point in the future.
For the Sena, this is a significant poll for it comes in the middle of a slow ideological transition it is seeking to make from being perceived as an extremist outfit to one which is more open and inclusive. It is also the first time a member of the Thackeray family, Aaditya, is contesting the polls.
The Opposition has suffered from major desertions and infighting. The Congress is faction-ridden. In terms of issues, the ruling alliance is banking on the revocation of Article 370, the perceived integrity of Fadnavis, the stability of the last five years, and central and state welfare schemes.
CHANDIGARH: THE fate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is taking a second straight shot at power in Haryana will be clear on Thursday as the counting of votes will start at 8 am with clear trends expected by 10am. The counting of votes will take place in 91 counting centres set up in 59 locations.
Haryana recorded a low voter turnout of 68.31% in the October 21 assembly election with 69.36% male and 67.12% female casting their votes in the multi-cornered fiercely fought election.
As many as 1,169 candidates, 1,064 male and 105 female, are in the fray across 90 assembly seats.
While maximum 25 candidates are contesting from Hansi segment, the minimum 6 each candidate are in the fray from Ambala Cantt and Shahabad.
BJP and the Congress are locked in a direct contest in most of the constituencies.
According to Haryana’s joint chief electoral officer Inder Jeet, the counting centres have been set up in all the 90 assembly segments. He said in Badshahpur segment, two counting centres have been set up.
It was for the first time in October 2014 when the BJP came
to power on its own in Haryana since the state was carved out of Punjab on November 1, 1966.
The BJP had dethroned the Congress government of then two-term chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda with a simple majority.
Buoyed by exit polls that indicated an easy victory for the BJP, the party is hoping to retain power, while the Congress is anxiously hoping to bounce back.
Performance of the new entrant Jannayak Janta Party, the offshoot of the Indian National Lok Dal, will be watched closely. The poll outcome will settle the tussle between the JJP and the INLD about which party is the true inheritor of the legacy of Ch Devi Lal, the founder of the INLD.
Most of the exit polls predicted that the JJP could perform better than INLD.
In 2014, the BJP won 47 seats and the Congress 15, with two Haryana Janhit Congress legislators later merging with it. The INLD had 19 seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal one each. There were five independents.
Led by chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar, the BJP has set a target of winning 75 seats in the state, where the Congress is struggling to make a comeback.