Covid cases cross 200,000; rural clusters new challenge

IN 93 DAYS Total number of deaths now 5,753 but mortality rate nearly half of world average

NEWDELHI: The number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in India surpassed 200,000 on Tuesday, nearly doubling over 15 days, even as a considerable reopening of national transport and business activity fuelled fears of localised outbreaks emerging in new areas beyond urban hot spots that have so far pushed the contagion.

Globally, there are now 6.4 million infections of Sars-cov-2, which causes Covid-19, and close to 380,000 deaths. In India, the number of fatalities on Tuesday was 5,753. The case fatality rate (CFR) in the country, however, stood at 2.8%, lower than the worldwide figure of 5.9%. About a fourth of India’s total infections have been reported over the past week. “Our Covid-19 fatality rate of 2.82% is among the lowest in the world, compared to a global fatality rate of 6.13%. We have been able to achieve this due to timely identification of cases and proper clinical management,” Union health ministry joint secretary Lav Agarwal said at a news briefing on Tuesday.

Official data from states showed 100,289 patients have so far recuperated from the disease in the country, taking the recovery rate to 48.4%, which is among the most promising figures on the infection across the world. The low CFR and high recovery rate indicate that India may not be witnessing an impact as severe as in some of the other countries ravaged by the pathogen.

While experts say the peak of the outbreak is yet to come, an analysis on preprint server medrxiv showed that there could be independent regional crests across the vast geography of the country at different points in time. “The peaks might start as early as the end of July in some states and go all the way to September in many others,” said the research paper titled ‘Lockdown Effect on Covid-19 Spread in India’. Some studies also expect another infection spurt in winter this year.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said India was “far away from the peak”. “Our preventive measures to curtail Covid-19 have been very effective,” said ICMR scientist Nivedita Gupta.

In the 93 days since the outbreak began, total infections were at 207,112 and 5,753 people died of the disease till Tuesday. Three states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi – currently account for half of all infections in the country.