TRENDS SUGGEST DEEPENING POLARISATION ACROSS STATE

NEW DELHI: The BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has managed to retain Assam convincingly. At 11:45 pm, the NDA, which also includes the Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party (Liberal) or UPPL had win/leads in 74 out of the total 126 assembly constituencies in the state with a vote share of 44.5%. The Congress alliance that includes the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) had wins/ leads in 50 assembly constituency (AC) with a vote share of 43.8%.

The 2021 assembly elections mark a third consecutive twothirds majority for the NDA in the state, if results are disaggregated at the AC level. The BJP contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections on its own in the state.

The Congress, the main opposition party that ruled the state for 15 years from 2001 to 2016, has managed a seat share in the region of 20% for the fourth consecutive time in these elections.

The AIUDF’S performance has also been on similar lines. Its seat share in the 2016, 2019 and 2021 elections has been 10.3%, 9.5% and 11.1% (See Chart 1).

To be sure, the 2021 political alignment in the state was very different from 2016 and 2019. The Congress’s alliance with the AIUDF in these elections was a big change in Assam politics.

Similarly, the BPF decided to ally with the Congress instead of the BJP, after the latter ditched it in the Bodoland Territorial Council elections held in 2020. The BJP allied with the UPPL instead of the BPF.