Case trajectory shows second wave is ebbing
NEW DELHI: While the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak continued to burden India’s health care system, with the total number of confirmed infections in the country closing in on 25 million on Sunday, the trajectory of new infections for the entire country appeared to show signs of receding from a peak over the past week, according to data.
For the first time since the start of the second wave, the number of active cases in the country began inching down – a crucial development as the onslaught of the second wave was marked by a soaring number of active cases, which resulted in shortages of vital supplies such as medical oxygen, life-saving drugs, hospital beds and ambulance services.
A total of 281,911 new cases were reported on Sunday, the lowest in 27 days, taking the total number of infections in the country since the start of the outbreak to 24,964,718, according to HT’S Covid-19 dashboard.
In the past week, there have been 328,947 new infections every day across the country on average; a week ago, this number was 391,819, the highest ever recorded and what appeared to be the peak of the second wave. This means that the rate of new infections reduced by 16% in the past seven days – the first time such a significant contraction of the outbreak has been reported in the country since February. At its peak, the week-on-week change in seven-day average of new infections was rising at more than 70% for the week ending April 11.
The seven-day average of new cases, which denotes the country’s Covid-19 case curve, has now fallen for seven straight days for the first time since early February, underlining what appeared to be a clear reversal of trend and not just a few days of dropping cases. And this trend has taken place without daily tests going down
– the seven-day average of samples tested has gone up 3.6% from last Sunday.
Delhi has seen the largest drop in the rate of new infections in the past week – the seven-day average of daily cases dropped 45% in the last week, from 18,374 to 10,043. In other words, cases in Delhi dropped more than three times the national average.
In Uttar Pradesh, the sevenday average of new cases went down 39% in the last week, while this number dropped 36% in Chhattisgarh and Bihar, and 32% in Telangana. These were followed by Jharkhand (30% drop in average daily cases), Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (27% and 25% contraction). On May 12, HT reported that at least six regions in the country – Delhi, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and UP– had started reporting a steady drop in infections in the past few weeks, with another three – Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand – exhibiting early signs of a plateau.
NEW DELHI: Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal on Sunday said that the ongoing lockdown in Delhi had been extended till May 24 morning.
It was earlier supposed to end at 5am on Monday, May 17.
On April 19, a weekend curfew in Delhi was turned into a full lockdown from the next day in the light of an alarming rise in Covid-19 cases in the capital which left the city’s health infrastructure creaking. Since then, this is the fourth time the lockdown has been extended.
“The lockdown has been extended till 5am next Monday,” the chief minister said during his visit to a Covid-19 health facility set up outside the government’s GTB hospital.
General movement of people and economic activities are prohibited in the lockdown with exemptions for those engaged in essential services and the supply chain of essential goods.
Metro services are suspended and public buses have been asked to cater only to essential service providers. When asked if Delhi metro service would resume, the chief minister said: “Restrictions will remain as it is this week.”
The Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) issued the official order regarding the lockdown extension around 12.30 pm.
“The situation of Covid-19 in Delhi has again been reviewed and [it has been] observed that Covid-19 positive cases and positivity rate is still high and [the] bed occupancy (oxygen beds/icu beds) in the dedicated Covid-19 government and private hospitals and nursing homes is also on higher side,” said the order explaining the rationale for extending the lockdown.
Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the division of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research, said: “Delhi is still facing a shortage of hospital beds, ICUS, ventilators. The government has to implement policies to ensure minimum interaction of people and make sure that there are no gatherings. So the lockdown is essential. We cannot let guards down at this point.”
As on Sunday, 15,340 (66%) of 23,213 oxygen beds in the city were occupied. Of the 6,415 total ICU beds, 5,728 (89%) were occupied, the government’s app on hospital beds showed.