The five futures

The IPCC report uses five possible scenarios for the future, which predict how the climate crisis will unfold depending on the socioeconomic choices of nations

Very high emissions: This is a future to avoid at all costs. Current CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050. The global economy grows quickly, but growth is fuelled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average temp is a scorching 4.4C higher.

High: On this path, emissions and temperatures rise steadily and CO2 emissions roughly double from current levels by 2100. Countries become more competitive with one another, shifting toward national security and ensuring their own food supplies. By the end of the century, average temperatures have risen by 3.6C.

Intermediate: This is a “middle of the road” scenario. Emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Socioeconomic factors follow historic trends, with no notable shifts. Move to sustainability is slow, and income grows unevenly. Temperatures rise 2 7C by 2100

Low: In the second-best scenario, global CO2 emissions are cut severely, but not as fast, reaching net-zero after 2050. It imagines the same socioeconomic shifts towards sustainability as SSP1-1.9. But temperatures stabilize around 1.8C higher by the end of the century.

Very Low: This is the most optimistic scenario, describing a world where global CO2 emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. Societies switch to more sustainable practices, with focus shifting from economic growth to overall well-being. Investments in education and health go up. Inequality falls. Extreme weather is more common, but the world has dodged the worst impacts of climate change.