4 Can a return to nativism save the 'Uddhav Sena'?
When read with the numbers above, Eknath Shinde’s deal with the senior right wing partner BJP, which also has got him the chief minister’s post, seems like the best possible outcome for the Shiv Sena. The moot question is why did the BJP not agree to this when Uddhav Thackeray wanted the chief minister’s post after the 2019 election results. The only logical answer is that the BJP expects the new Sena faction to be less assertive than the one under Thackeray, which was not willing to accept the BJP as a senior partner even though it was more than clear in electoral numbers.
Can Uddhav and whatever of the Sena that remains with him stage a political comeback from here? While predicting political outcomes is always hazardous, the only objective claim which can be made is that Uddhav will find it difficult to resurrect the Sena by using the Marathi pride card, the party’s preferred weapon since the time of his father who launched the party in 1966. The biggest reason is the change in linguistic composition of the Mumbai region, where the Shiv Sena took birth. According to the 1961 census, 43% of the population in Greater Bombay reported Marathi to be its mother tongue. Data from the 2011 census (latest available figures) shows that this number had come down to 35%. With its original constituency continuously shrinking, the Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray and his comrades will find it very difficult to resurrect the militant nativist politics against a stronger right wing opponent. Of course, Thackeray can try and build common cause with the non-right wing support base in the state, but that will require a recalibration of the Sena’s politics away from Hindutva – and his first attempt to do so with the MVA hasn’t ended well.