Thackeray faces an uphill task

With rival Eknath Shinde now CM, he will have to fight for the party, workers and his father’s legacy

In Indian politics, as the adage goes, there are no certainties. The last lap of the political turmoil in Maharashtra sprung a surprise on Thursday with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) naming Eknath Shinde, the man responsible for breaking the Shiv Sena and the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, as the next chief minister (CM). BJP said Devendra Fadnavis will serve as the deputy to Mr Shinde, who was the de facto number two in the Sena organisation for years and will run the administration.

The shock announcement shows three things. One, that the rebels are in for the long haul and are looking to carve out a separate identity (and not just be subsumed under the BJP’S larger Hindutva umbrella). The elevation of Mr Shinde ensures that his side can not only claim to be the flag bearers of real Hindutva (as opposed to the more moderate tone adopted by Uddhav Thackeray), but also the worthy inheritor of Bal Thackeray’s polarising but charismatic legacy. When an increasingly desperate Sena is looking to secure its name and symbol ahead of crucial municipal elections, this indicates that the next battle will be over the identity of the Sena. Two, after decimating the Sena legislative party, the BJP is looking to erase the imprint of its erstwhile senior alliance partner on both Hindutva and Maharashtra. In many ways, firebrand Hindutva began with the Sena’s street power and was fortified by its nativist pitch. After Bal Thackeray’s death, the Sena was struggling to match the political firepower of the BJP. With the naming of a noted hardliner as CM, the BJP hopes to wipe out Mr Thackeray’s brand of moderate Hindutva politics and establish itself as a pan-maharashtra party. And three, the move pushes Mr Thackeray into a corner. Already reeling from the loss of government and large chunks of his party, the Sena has suffered a body blow. It will now have to scramble to hold on to every parliamentarian, corporator, secretary and worker — without the government’s backing and its resource muscle. Of course, much will depend on Mr Shinde’s performance as CM and whether he holds enough sway among the ordinary Sena worker who is still emotionally tied to the Thackeray family. A crucial test will be the Mumbai municipal elections later this year.

When his government was tottering, Mr Thackeray had thrown a challenge to the BJP last week — will the next CM be a Sainik? On Thursday, the BJP responded in kind, making not only a Sainik but also his bête noire the CM. There are no certainties in Indian politics, but an uphill battle awaits Mr Thackeray — for control of Mumbai, the party and his father’s legacy.