BJP’s UP win opens door for rightwing forces

The massive victory of the Bharatiya Janata Partyin the Uttar Pradesh election has come as a surprise. As in 2014, it is a Modi rather than a BJP victory. The lack of strong BJP leaders in Uttar Pradesh and a chief ministerial candidate did not matter as Narendra Modi took over the role of the chief campaigner. Also, the BJP has evolved into a disciplined, cadre-based party under its president Amit Shah, who has run a well-organised campaign.

While much has been said about Modi’s charisma, a fundamental reason for the success of the BJP is the lack of mass leaders in the Samajwadi Party, and more particularly the Congress.

The emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a young, development-oriented leader came too late and he could not shed the baggage of the Samajwadi Party as a feudal, corrupt party that tolerated riots in 2013 and has links with mafia dons. Also, the absence of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a senior, backward caste leader, worked against the party.

For the Congress dynasty has clearly not worked; Rahul Gandhi has not delivered over a number of elections. Many capable, secondline leaders have been sidelined; where local leaders get space the party has performed well, as in Punjab.

The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance proved to be a disaster. It was hoped the former would attract the Yadav and Muslim votes; the latter upper caste votes. But, the upper castes moved towards the BJP while the Muslim vote got divided between the alliance and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Moreover, the alliance leaders calculated narrowly on the basis of caste/ community.

The BSP has performed poorly. It would be wrong to write off the Bahujan Samaj Party or Mayawati. Caste-based inequality remains a reality; but identity alone no longer appeals to the Dalits or Muslims. A young, educated, lower middle-class generation is demanding quality education, jobs and rapid development in Uttar Pradesh.

In 2007, Mayawati introduced a broad-based developmental agenda, but her reaching out to the Brahmins disappointed the Dalits.

In contrast, the BJP cast it net wider. Since the late 1990s, the BJP has been mobilising to create a more inclusive, “non-Brahminical Hindutva” through the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and local leaders such as Yogi Adityanath. Modi’s communal remarks were not so much against Muslims, but to consolidate this new Hindutva vote bank. They paid rich dividends: The Jats in western Uttar Pradesh, the Other Backward Classes in eastern

Uttar Pradesh and non-Jatav Dalits have supported the BJP.

The results suggest a tectonic shift in the state and national politics; the BJP has made a big breakthrough after 15 years. We are witnessing the emergence of a post-identity, postglobalisation polity where an aspirational and consumerist Hindu middle-class focused on development does not seem bothered by the rise of a majoritarian democracy.

The collapse of the Congress and the “social justice” parties in Uttar Pradesh has perhaps opened the door for consolidation of Rightwing forces and the possibility of victory in 2019.