Delay unlikely to change voting pattern
could still end up lower because it falls squarely in South Kashmir, the region which was rocked with unprecedented protests in July last year after the killing of militant commander Burhan Wani. South Kashmir is – was would be more appropriate – the PDP’s stronghold and a single digit voter turnout would be a direct referendum on Mehbooba’s legitimacy as chief minister.
The large scale protests on Sunday in Srinagar can in fact be interpreted as a rejection of the democratic process by the Kashmiris. To be more precise, it is a rejection of mainstream politics, including of the National Conference (NC), which once towered over the state through its founder, Sheikh Abdullah and subsequently through Farooq Abdullah, who was in the fray in the bypoll. Disturbed by the violence, Farooq at one point, while blaming Mehbooba for not providing security and creating a conducive environment, said, many NC workers were unable to come out and vote.
The frightening away of party cadre – which could well be repeated in Anantnag – is a serious development. The villagelevel worker is the best political thermometer and officials in Srinagar – who do not wish to be named – reveal that the workers did not want to come out in defiance of the boycott call issued by the separatists. They did not want to be ‘marked’ and so, preferred to lie under.
Former chief minister, Omar Abdullah, tweeted to say that he’d contested six elections in 20 years but ‘’never seen this level of violence.’’ He’s not completely off the mark. In the 2014 assembly election, people came out in large numbers to vote. At 66 percent, the state recorded the highest turnout in 25 years. Sunday’s 7.14 percent (revised from 6.5) was the lowest in 30 years. The level of violence in 2014 too stayed low and people – especially in the Valley – came out in larger numbers in response to Mehbooba’s call to keep the BJP from crossing Banihal, the tunnel that connects Jammu with Kashmir.
Does Mehbooba’s coming to power through the alliance with the very party she wanted kept out, have anything to do with the current cycle of violence? The answer can only be yes. The alliance is seen as ‘unholy’ and the protests – which are showing no signs of abating since July 2016 – are direct fallout of what the Kashmiris view as a deep betrayal. Successive governments in New Delhi have interpreted large turnouts – like the one in 2014 – as a sign of normalcy; as Kashmiris embracing ‘India’. Will the government now analyse the 7.14 figure as a rejection of anything ‘Indian’?
Whatever their final analysis, Mehbooba, by asking for a postponement to the Anantnag election has only admitted that the ground situation is beyond the immediate control of her government. She was certainly not in control when Srinagar polled.
The Srinagar election has put a huge question mark on the democratic process and the separatists – who may not represent all protestors – must certainly be feeling chuffed. This is precisely the time for a serious rethink on Kashmir. It is the clearest wake-up call for the Modi-led government.