Modi is here for another seven years
down and his focus has moved from his original middle class core constituency to India’s poor.
Economists may argue about the merits of demonetisation — as indeed they did about Indira Gandhi’s nationalisation of the banks — but there is no doubt that with that one move, Modi has successfully re-invented himself as the scourge of the corrupt rich and as a prime minister who will reboot the economy while wiping out the accumulated hoards of black money.
The Opposition can argue — as it did in the 1971 election when it fought Indira Gandhi on bank nationalisation — that economic gimmicks will actually damage the economy in the long run. But nobody is listening. The battle for the public imagination has already been won.
So what is the Opposition’s best hope? Well, if history is anything to go by, Modi can only be felled by unforeseen events that we have no control over. Mrs Gandhi’s goodwill disappeared after the global oil price hike of 1973 which ravaged the Indian economy. Rajiv Gandhi’s massive mandate was punctured by Swedish Radio’s claims about kickbacks in the Bofors scandal.
So yes, it is entirely possible that something startling will come out of nowhere to damage Modi. In such situations, it does not matter who leads the Opposition: In 1977 and 1989, the victory was shared by squabbling little men. But unless that happens, we are looking at seven more years of Narendra Modi. And there is very little that the Opposition can do about it.