Nawaz Sharif is down but not out
His re-election as PML-N chief could further upset the army
Anew round of shadow boxing between Pakistan’s de facto leader, Nawaz Sharif, and the country’s military establishment has begun. Sharif showed his continued standing as the country’s most popular and powerful political leader by getting his party, the Pakistan Muslim League –
Nawaz (PML-N), to amend its constitution and ensure that he heads the party for another four years. This means he will be at the helm of the PML-N when the country goes for elections next year. Sharif was removed from the prime minister’s position after a Supreme Court ruling disqualified him from holding political office because of corruption charges. The general view is that this was engineered by the all-powerful military because of Rawalpindi’s concerns that Sharif emerging as a civilian leader with an unprecedented degree of political power. He faces almost no serious Opposition, especially given that PML-N’S traditional rival the Pakistan People’s Party remains in a leadership transition. Even the corruption charges, a fall out of the “Panamagate” revelations about offshore financial holdings, do not seem to have dented his public support.
Sharif’s next battle will be in the courts. He will probably be indicted for corruption in a few days and then will face a protracted court battle. It seems likely the real struggle will be outside the courts. Sharif will seek to show the degree of public support he commands – his re-appointment as head of the party is in that direction. The message to the military and the judiciary: Attempting to marginalise Sharif could release public protests that they will find hard to handle. It would also ensure any future regime would lack legitimacy. The court of public opinion is being arrayed against the court of establishment manipulation.
This will be the third time that Sharif is toppled in his longchequered history. However, he gives the impression he is prepared to stand up to the generals in a way he was not ready to do so in the past. The consequences for Pakistan’s political future could be considerable if that is the case – and especially if Sharif wins what is likely to be a protracted and turbulent struggle.