Go the extra mile for Kathmandu
India must counter China’s influence in Nepal at the outset
Nepal’s Left alliance – a conglomeration of former Maoists and Communists – is certain to form the government in Kathmandu. The rival centrist Nepali Congress alliance of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, comprising Madhesi parties and former royalists, is not likely to pose much of a challenge. This means that after a change of 10 administrations in as many years, Nepal could finally get a stable government.
While this is good news for Nepal, it is causing considerable disquiet in India. The likely return to power of former Nepal prime minister KP Oli, whose relations with New Delhi have been fraught and who is seen as close to China, suggests that there could be a shift in geo-strategic policy in the Himalayan nation. New Delhi was quick off the mark when the devastating earthquake of 2015 struck, moving in to help within 24 hours. But much of the goodwill was frittered away by what was seen as India’s interference in internal Nepali politics when it seemingly imposed a blockade after expressing its displeasure over inadequate representation for certain communities, including the Madhesis, in the Himalayan country’s new constitution. The fact that the Left has gained the upper hand now shows that India did not read the signals right. Now, whether India likes it or not, Beijing will play a bigger role in Nepali politics.
China has already given Nepal access to its ports and has been talking about a joint rail link construction. But the most significant move is the possibility of China supplying Nepal with petroleum products, which now come exclusively from India. This means that managing diplomatic relations with Nepal is going to get much more difficult. India’s best bet is to show greater willingness to work with the new government on infrastructure projects and not be seen to be interfering in internal political matters. This is a time for deft diplomatic footwork. Delhi must signal that it is willing to go out of its way to accommodate the concerns of the new government. The possibility of Kathmandu moving closer to Beijing will have several negative consequences for India that must be anticipated and dealt with promptly.