The cost of Bibi’s political survival could be steep
He could remain in power by surrendering to the demands of his coalition, or stand firm and refuse to pander
On February 13, the Israeli police recommended charges against Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Now, the spotlight is on Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, who must decide whether to issue a formal indictment against Netanyahu.
Since returning as prime minister in March 2009, Netanyahu has overseen unprecedented economic growth and a series of diplomatic feats. At the same time, extreme divisiveness has become a political hallmark of his tenure, and the drumbeat of potential war in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza has grown deafening.
The just-completed police inquiries are not the only legal challenges Netanyahu faces; other corruption probes are ongoing. The ripple effect of these scandals – which include allegations of accepting some $300,000 in gifts over the course of a decade – could engulf a fragile political dynamic in Israel, where rivals within Netanyahu’s coalition hold sway over him and his Likud faction.
The dilemmas faced by Moshe Kahlon, the finance minister, and Naftali Bennett, the education minister, are instructive. Each currently wields a degree of influence that would not be guaranteed in a new Knesset. So, as crisis envelops Netanyahu, members of his government are focused on amassing enough accomplishments to appeal to the electorate on their own merit.
The hawks advocating for a more spirited response to Iranian-sponsored aggression in the Golan Heights will be emboldened, as will those insisting on more construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Any one of these groups could instigate a revolt and compel their Knesset representatives to bring down the government. Amid such pressure, the cost of Netanyahu’s political survival could be steep.
Complicating all of this is Netanyahu’s relationship with US President Donald Trump. The Israeli government has been feeling invincible in the US — buoyed by Washington’s decisions to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, as well as its open hostility to the Iran nuclear deal.but today, that confidence is waning. Earlier this month a White House spokesman issued a rare rebuke of Netanyahu, dismissing reports that US officials had discussed an annexation plan for the West Bank with their Israeli counterparts.
If Netanyahu goes against his principles and surrenders to the demands of his coalition, he will be compromising his allegiance to the office he holds. But if he resists the temptation to pander, it could mean his downfall. The stakes have never been higher, both for Netanyahu, and for his government.