Monsoon to be normal, deficit seen in some southern states: Skymet

NEWDELHI: Rainfall in the June-toseptember monsoon season will be normal this year, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Wednesday, in a forecast that should bring cheer not just to farmers dependant on rain-fed irrigation but also governments of states headed for the polls later this year.

Only the southern states, barring Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh, will likely receive deficit rainfall, Skymet added. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) considers it a normal monsoon when rainfall is 96-104% of the 50-year average of 887 mm, also called the Long Period Average (LPA). Skymet forecasts monsoon rainfall to be 100% of the LPA this year with an error margin of +/- 5%.

The south-west monsoon waters about half of the country’s farmland and is crucial for a healthy harvest in a country where two-thirds of the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood. Widespread farm distress hasbeenreportedfromparts of the country following a bumper harvest and slump in global commodity prices. After back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015, India received normal monsoon rainfall in 2016. Last year, India received 95% of the LPA.

Skymet’s forecast of a normal monsoon is in line with what was indicated in a March bulletin of the IMD that initial conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans favoured a normal monsoon.

North-west India is likely to receive normal rainfall, according to the Skymet forecast.

Below normal rainfall in the southern peninsula in Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is a cause of concern because it could have an impact on the states’ agriculture output. Parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Northeast India will also likely receive deficit rainfall in August. “Southern and central parts of Madhya Pradesh and south Chhattisgarh will receive good rains throughout the four months,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather, said.

June will bring excess rainfall to the tune of 111% of the LPA for the month, Skymet said. Rains are expected to dip in July and August, with rainfall being 97% and 96% of the LPA respectively.

According to the met department’s El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which refers to abnormal wind and water temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean) prediction, La Nina conditions, which refer to persistent cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, are prevailing at the moment. Abnormal warming in the same region creates El Nino conditions that typically cause lower rainfall.

“Generally when La Nina conditions prevail, the monsoon is good,” DS Pai, a senior scientist at IMD, Pune, said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin of the Met department in March said neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean.

SKYMET FORECASTS MONSOON RAINFALL TO BE 100% OF THE LONG PERIOD AVERAGE THIS YEAR WITH AN ERROR MARGIN OF +/ 5%