Flushed out, Maoists scramble for new haven Fatalities have little impact on broader trajectory of conflict

ON THE RUN Having lost large areas of their bastion, they are now targeting other parts

SOUTH GADCHIROLI IS ONE OF THE 9 DIVISIONS OF THE MAOISTS IN DANDAKARANYA WHERE 37 MAOISTS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN THE LAST THREE DAYS, INCLUDING 31 IN AN ENCOUNTER

RAIPUR: Maoist rebels are under pressure from security forces in Dandakaranya forests of eastcentral India, their traditional stronghold, and are trying to build a new bastion, according to interrogation reports of Maoist leaders and documents seized by police of Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, a reason why they may be congregating in Gadchiroli.

Dandakarayana is spread between the borders of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha, and the Maoists call it a free zone. The Communist Party of India (Maoist) has divided Dandakaranya into nine divisions, each comprising three/five area committees; every area committee is composed of several local organisational squads ( LOS ) and local guerrilla squads ( LGS).

South Gadchiroli is one of the nine divisions of the Maoists in Dandakaranya where 37 Maoists have been killed by security forces in the last three days, including 31 in an encounter on April 22.

“The recent activities of Maoists in Rajnandgaon, Khawardha (both in Chhattisgarh), Balaghat and Mandala (both in Madhya Pradesh) proves that they are moving to new regions in the MMC, of which Gondia and a tip of Gadchiroli (both in Maharashtra) are part. As per details available with us, there are about 180 armed cadres who have shifted to this new MMC area,” said a senior intelligence officer posted in Chhattisgarh who did not want to be named, referring to the Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh or MMC region.

According to security forces officers in Chhattisgarh, the attacks by security forces in Dandakaranya have led to disputes between Maoist leaders and the cadre.

On February 9, Gadchiroli police arrested Ramanna, also known as Srinivas Madru, and his wife Padma, both Maoist operatives. Ramanna was one of the founder members of the Peoples’ War Group (PWG) that merged with another rebel outfit, Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCCI), in 2004 to give birth to the unified CPI (Maoist).

Ramanna allegedly told the police the CPI (Maoist) is now concentrating on the tri-junction of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

“We have documents which suggest that owing to pressure of the security forces in Dandakaraya region, they are now shifting to MMC... They are armed with automatic weapons but steps to contain them are going on,” said DM Awasthi, special director general (anti-maoist operations), Chhattisgarh police.

A letter recovered by the security forces in February 2017 from Bastar points to increasing pressure from security forces in the region forcing Maoists to shift to MMC.

The letter written to a Maoist rebel, identified as comrade Surendra, from comrade Somru said: “Oppression is rising. The enemy are opening camps. Villagers are fleeing from the area and we are working in difficult conditions.” fatalities.

At its peak, a total of 223 districts across 20 states were declared Maoist-affected in 2008, with 87 of these recording violence. The ministry of home affairs lists 90 ‘affected’ districts, of which 30 are in the ‘most affected’ category — the latter largely clustered around the Dandakaranya belt, including Gadchiroli, the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh, and contiguous areas of south Odisha, Andhra and Telangana; as well as some districts in Bihar and Jharkhand.

The shift from blind and under-resourced ‘area domination’ and ‘clear, hold and develop’ strategies in 2009-10, to more localised intelligence-based operations — founded on the lessons of the Andhra experience and, at least initially, largely on inputs from the Andhra Pradesh Special Intelligence Bureau — have decimated the Maoist leadership.

Crucially, since 2010, at least 21 of 39 members of the top Communist Party of India (Maoist) leadership, politburo and central committee, have been ‘neutralised’ — three killed, 16 arrested, and two surrendered; 219 state level and 736 at the district level have, similarly, been put out of action, including 20 and 106 in each category, respectively, killed. The loss of leadership has been devastating, both in terms of capacity for command, control and operations, as well as morale, feeding into a surge in surrenders: 1,442 in 2016 and 685 in 2017. In addition, 1,840 and 1,888 Maoists were arrested across the country, respectively, in 2016 and 2017. Critically, a number of development interventions by the government are beginning to bear fruit, improving access and communications in the worst affected areas even as some welfare programmes have had an impact on Maoist support base.

The Maoists concede they have lost ground in their heartland areas and are under increasing threat in their remaining safe havens. But their residual capacities are significant and they have targeted security forces successfully. Within the logic of the war they are waging, executing dramatic retaliation for security forces’ success in Gadchiroli will certainly be high among their priorities. Revenge attacks may come wherever and whenever the opportunity presents itself.