The X factor in Karnataka
The JD(S) could decide the fate of the BJP, Congress in the state
The Karnataka election campaign has picked up intensity. If Narendra Modi is speaking to party leaders and workers on video, Rahul Gandhi is doing roadshows. If Amit Shah is aggressively building the party organisation down to the booth level, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has launched a campaign with very strong sense of regional assertion. The intensity of the campaign reflects the high stakes for both national parties in this poll. For the BJP, a win is necessary to counter the perception that the party is facing serious political challenges and discontent; it is also needed to enter the south, the one region where it has not been able to make a breakthrough. For the Congress, a win is essential to counter the perception of decline, for the party is reduced to ruling only four Indian states. It will also boost Mr Gandhi’s leadership credentials soon after he has taken over as president and give the party resources which are needed for the subsequent set of state elections and the general elections in 2019.
The outcome of the elections, however, may well depend on the third party in the fray. Erroneously thought of as only a bipolar state, Karnataka has a third force in the form of the Janata Dal (Secular), led by former PM HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy. Reports from the state, and opinion polls, suggest that the contest is very close, the assembly could well be fragmented, and the JD(S) could emerge as a key swing force. The party hopes to win a substantial section of the Vokkaliga community; it has tied up with the BSP and hopes this will help them win a section of the Dalit vote; and, it is projecting itself as a secular party to win a section of the Muslim vote. This is precisely what the BJP is hoping too: for all these three segments otherwise have a stronger association with the Congress. Any split in Dalit, Muslim, and Vokkaliga votes helps the BJP. The Congress has, for this reason, been castigating the JD(S) as a B team of the BJP.
In yet another quirk of Indian electoral politics, the fortunes of the two national parties will depend on the performance of the third regional party. And that constitutes the X factor in the Karnataka elections.