Big Hindutva imprint in BJP’S show

Party secures significant gains in Coastal Karnataka belt, a region with a history of communal polarisation

NEW DELHI: That the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made a great comeback in Karnataka elections is beyond doubt. It has increased its 2013 seat tally of 40 by 64.

A lot of factors such as BS Yeddurappa bringing back Lingayat votes; a last minute rally blitz by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a not-so-visible nevertheless big anti-incumbency against the Siddaramaiah government have contributed to this performance.

However, a comparison of region-wise performance of the BJP from 2008 to 2018 elections shows that Hindutva might have been the biggest boost for the party. Comparing 2008 with 2018 is a better idea because the BJP suffered due to defections in the 2013 elections (BS Yeddyurappa left with his supporters).

BJP’S current tally of 104 seats is six short of the 110 it got in the 2008 elections. Its 2018 performance is worse than its 2008 performance in the Bombay Karnataka sub-region. It is only marginally better in the Hyderabad Karnataka sub-region. These two regions are known to have a lot of Lingayat population of the state. This shows that the party has not made any extraordinary gains due to the return of Lingayat votes. Even in Bengaluru, the deficit in the BJP’S 2018 seats visà-vis 2008 is of eight seats, which is six more than the two seats where elections have been deferred.

The region where the BJP has made the biggest improvement in comparison to its 2008 performance is the Coastal Karnataka belt, where its seats have increased by 55%. This area is known for communal polarisation.

This author had drawn attention towards the possibility of sharp communal polarisation in the state in an earlier piece pubcongress

lished on 12 May, 2018. It said, “The only clear communitybased polarisation, which one comes across in the state, is among Muslims. It goes beyond

the communally sensitive region on the coast this time. Muslims, who admit to having voted for the JD(S) in previous elections, are explicit about voting for the this time…to be sure, a consolidation of Muslim votes behind the Congress could also create a counter-polarisation behind the BJP.”

The fact that the BJP has made its biggest gains in the coastal region shows that it did gain from a counter-polarisation among non-muslims.