Prediction markets and blockchain
market can bring more exhaustive and detailed expression modes to the economic events and can specifically evaluate the value and risks at the macro and micro economy level. The prediction market can also provide a platform for the persons with special market information of specific company to issue their opinions.
This reliable information can be aggregated to assist the public to accurately predict the share price of the company.
Information and data are collected via questionnaires, paid data exchange and mining. These channels are costly and their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. They can also generate a lot of information noise and generally require more complex secondary data processing.
The market based real token incentive mechanism of the blockchain predictive market and the indispensability of decentralized data de-codification allows more participants to be motivated and to enthusiastically use their free time to information.
Prediction market can be used to certify the price authenticity of the artwork and antiques along with verifying their value. One potential application is prediction of the valuation before the artwork is auctioned. The auction house in advance can evaluate the authenticity, starting auction price and seller’s bail of the artwork via a low cost by using the crowd wisdom, saving millions of appraisal and evaluation costs and get more accurate and trustworthy certification results.
Prediction market platforms also allow participants to trade the outcomes of an election. So, if an organization thinks that a certain politician being elected would negatively affect the revenue, it could bet on the event of a successful election and thus hedge against the disadvantageous outcome thereby empowering voters. Prediction market platforms enables participants to trade the outcomes of major sporting events.
Some companies offering prediction market platforms include Augur, an open prediction market platform that runs on Ethereum; Gnosis, an open prediction market platform, targeting its platform at various financial, insurance and information markets and runs on Ethereum’s blockchain; Stox, an online financial service that allows users to trade in various financial products and is licensed to provide cross-border investment services in the European Union; Hivemind, an open-source protocol based on bitcoin that allows users to participate in prediction markets.
THE INDIAN PERSPECTIVE
Blockchain prediction market is in a very nascent stage in India and has lot of advantages to offer. Blockchain prediction market can be leveraged to advantage the economies of developing countries such as India resulting in reduction of bureaucracy and corruption and empowerment of people.