IMD under-reported rainfall intensity: Govt
NEWDELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) under-reported the intensity of the rainfall that triggered unprecedented flooding that left more than 400 people dead and caused a trail of devastation across Kerala in August although it had accurately predicted heavy rain, according to a draft government report.
The report, prepared by the ministry of earth sciences (MOES), was an evaluation of the accuracy of IMD’S model in predicting the Kerala floods. A final version of the report will be released by October-end.
The immediate cause of the flooding was the formation of low-pressure weather systems over the Bay of Bengal, said the report, which added that the unprecedented rainfall could be linked to the impact of climate change.
“The report documents the unprecedented rainfall as an impact of climate change. In fact, we are seeing these events across the country and they will have to be documented,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, MOES.
Climate change has been blamed for extreme weather events across the world. Around 10,000 km of highways were destroyed because of the floods and landslides that affected Kerala in August.
Over 45,000 hectare of farmland were damaged. As per the revenue ministry, 11,000 houses were wrecked, and 111,000 houses partially damaged.
More than a million people were displaced by the floods.
The MOES report has cautioned that such events may happen again in Kerala.
“We are forecasting extremely heavy rain in Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu between October 5 and 10 due to a weather system over the south-east Arabian Sea. There will be more such events in future,” said Rajeevan.
The draft report indicates that IMD’S model did predict the transition from normal monsoon rain to very heavy rainfall well but couldn’t predict the extreme volume of rain that pounded some districts.
“Weather transitions are being picked up very well by our model but it’s not picking up how high the rainfall can be during the transition phase. Even before the floods in Kerala this August, the model predicted that there is going to be a sharp rise in rainfall,” said Rajeevan.