Chouhan banks on schemes to better tally
STRATEGY In MP, there is a welfare scheme for everyone — newborns, students, farmers, even the dead — yet a big risk, which the BJP CM faces, is fatigue
BURHANPUR: Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is two hours late for a public meeting in South Madhya Pradesh’s Burhanpur district. A local singer is keeping the audience engaged with patriotic songs while the crowd cheers every update on Chouhan’s arrival. He finally drives into Jaistambh roundabout in an open jeep. His wife, Sadhna Chouhan, and other ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders are with him. There is loud cheering as mama (uncle), as Chouhan is fondly known in the state, takes the stage.
“Your mama is here to take care of you,” Chouhan declares. “You do not have to worry about anything.” After an hour-long speech, Chouhan is off to another public meeting.
The avuncular, I-willtake-care-of-you message is key to Chouhan’s campaign. It’s also a continuation of his strategy from 2013.
The chief minister announced several welfare schemes in the run-up to the last assembly election in 2013. There was a scheme for every section – newborns, students, young entrepreneurs, women, farmers, widows, even the dead.
“People fondly call him mama because he takes care of his people,” said women and child development minister Archana Chitnis.
Chouhan fought his second election as chief minister in 2013 and improved his tally of seats in the assembly from 143 (out of a total of 230) in 2008 to 165 seats.
His first election, in 2008, was the most difficult he has faced till now. He became chief minister in November 2005, replacing Babulal Gaur two years into the BJP government’s term.
Ahead of the 2008 election, a miffed Uma Bharti, who was eyeing the chief minister’s chair, walked out of the party. It wasn’t just internal challenges that he faced, though. The Congress seemed to have got its act together. Chouhan managed to win but realised he needed to build political and brand equity.
“He realised he needed an image makeover if he wanted to play a long innings,” says a close confidant of the chief minister. “It was then that he decided to play the mama’s role.”
This year, 2018, could be the sternest test of that. Elections in the state are due on November 28.
Once again, the Congress seems to have gotten its act together. And there is some anti-incumbency in the state after 15 years of BJP rule.
Chouhan is banking on his mama image to tide over that. He has travelled throughout the state, touching people’s feet, greeting them with folded hands, waving to them, as part of his Aashirvad (blessings) yatra.
Everywhere he goes, there are people waiting to meet him. The opposition says this is a misuse of government machinery. “The entire government machinery is being misused. Every government department has been given a target to bring crowds along his yatra route and for his rallies,” Congress leader Shobha Oza claims. BJP leader Prabhat Jha rejects Oza’s charge. “People are on the streets to meet their mama.”
This time around, Chouhan, perhaps realising the stakes are higher, has been generous with his welfare schemes. “The government’s sambhal scheme is going to be a game changer in this election,” Jha says, referring to a scheme for the people working in the unorganized labour sector. Electricity at a fixed rate of Rs 200 a month and insurance benefits in case of death are part of the scheme for which around 20 million people, almost 50% of the state’s voters, have enrolled.
The BJP polled 15 million votes in the 2013 election.
“If the sambhal scheme strikes a chord, it will take us past the 2013 tally,” says a BJP leader, who asked not to be named.chouhan mentions the scheme at every meeting.
“Every family has benefitted from one or the other government scheme,” says BJP Parliament member Nand Kumar Singh Chauhan. “They know having Chouhan as chief minister is in their interest.”
Still, there’s the risk of fatigue. Of the 15 years that the BJP has been in power, Chouhan has been the chief minister for 13. The killing of six farmers in Mandsaur during an agitation in June 2017 is fresh in public memory. The agrarian crisis, part responsible for that protest, hasn’t blown over yet.
Jobs are still an issue (there aren’t enough), and crimes against women are on the rise. An internal assessment shows a large number of BJP lawmakers are unpopular and might hurt the party’s tally of seats.
“The BJP is certainly dealing with a strong anti-incumbency and the populist announcements, irrespective of state’s poor financial condition, is indicative of that,” says Congress leader Suresh Pachauri. The BJP is conscious of the challenges. In August, Chouhan began his yatra to cover each assembly constituency to overcome the challenges.
The idea was to fight the fatigue with the projection of his personal appeal.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ral-
lies ahead of the election will also be an advantage, BJP leaders said.
The BJP has tried to placate farmers by offering them higher prices for their produce and meeting their long-pending demand for cash payments at local mandis. And the party is preparing to drop a significant number of sitting legislators. “BJP president Amit Shah hinted, at an internal meeting, that there could be 120 new candidates…,” a BJP leader says on condition of anonymity.
Chouhan himself says he doesn’t see any anti-incumbency.
“In fact, there was less response to my yatras in 2008 and 2013 compared to this year. I attribute it specifically to pro-poor schemes, which affect the lives of the poor; a part of society that people had alleged did not support the BJP. They are now with us.”