Monsoon and its cascading effect
RAIN PATTERNS More than the season totals, it’s the distribution of the rains over the monsoon months that matters. 2014 to 2017 data shows shifting trends
The latter half of September saw Cyclone Daye bring an unusual burst of rainfall to North India and delay the withdrawal of the monsoon, improving the season’s rainfall deficiency over large parts. When it comes to assessing benefits of the monsoon, more than the season totals, it is their distribution over the four months that matters, that too at a geographical level that is small. For example, the Kerala floods in August were triggered by continuous heavy rainfall, and their cascading effect.
Distribution of monsoon rains matters immensely for Indian farmers. India receives about 75% of its total rainfall in the four monsoon months (June to September). Further, just 46% of net sown area in the country is irrigated. In other words, more than half the agricultural land, employing about a quarter of India’s workforce, depend on these rains. Typically, farmers need good rains at the time of sowing and they need rains to stay away during harvesting, and greater unpredictability in rainfall patterns affects a farmer’s ability to plan or protect. To be sure, the monsoon also impacts India’s non-agricultural economy by demand and supply linkages with the farm sector.
Statistics from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy show that India’s annual rainfall as percentage of Long Period Average ( for 50 years) was 87.4%, 85.5%, 96.9% and 94.5% in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. The analysis of district-wise and monthly rainfall statistics shows that these headlines figures do not capture the inter-temporal and geographical divergence in rainfall during the monsoon months. 2018 has been excluded from the analysis as data is not available.
For each of the four months, the distribution of rainfall changed from year to year, at times with significant implications for a given region. It also needs to be kept in mind that a specific region’s ability to deal with scarce rainfall might vary depending on its access to resources such as river water.