Pujara a good option as opener

The defining partnership of the Perth Test was the first one. Australia openers Marcus Harris and Aaron Finch, neither of whom had played a Test three months ago, added 112 runs. India’s openers, lauded as part of this famed batting line-up, failed comprehensively.

For a visiting side with the finest middle order in the world, that’s a huge weakness. In 2018, only openers of West Indies and Bangladesh average less than India.

If India end 2018 without an away series victory, there is a strong argument to say it’s the biggest missed opportunity for a generation. So they need to take a bold decision. Cheteshwar Pujara must be promoted to open, and KL Rahul moved to No 5. Pujara averages 116 as a Test opener. That’s a rather basic but persuasive fact. But the heart of the argument for promoting Pujara comes in the detail. There are some No 3 batsmen who you fear being exposed at the start of the innings. But Pujara’s record against the new ball is extremely good. He averages 55.08 in the first 20 overs of a Test innings; his dismissal rate in this period is 126.3. It’s a quirky turn, but it rather pleasingly means that if he faced every single delivery in the first 20 overs, more often than not he would remain unbeaten. Probably not best to try and test that theory, but it demonstrates his excellence.

It’s a record which stands up when he leaves Asia, only dropping to 102.4, and it’s a record which compares very favourably to India’s current openers. Of course, this could be skewed by the fact that Pujara has often arrived at the crease slightly later. In reality, this isn’t the case.

What’s more, Pujara appears to relish coming in right at the start of the innings. When arriving at the crease in overs 10-20, he averages 47.30; when he arrives in those first 10 overs, he averages 49.90. That record soars when he arrives after the 20th over (average 55.7), but that hasn’t been happening an awful lot lately. Get him in early, and watch him control the situation.

On top of this, we don’t have to look at their records just in the period of the new ball; we can look at their record in the specific conditions created by the new ball. In the first 10 overs of the innings in this series, Australia average 0.75° of swing, and 0.68° of seam. We can examine India’s batting records against those sorts of deliveries. Outside Asia, against balls swinging that much or more, Pujara has emphatically the best record of the three potential openers. Equally, when we look at their records against balls seaming more than 0.68°, we can again see Pujara top the averages, compared to Murali Vijay and KL Rahul.

What’s more, the promotion of Pujara removes one of India’s most precious talent from the firing line. Four years ago, KL Rahul announced himself to the world. India appeared to have unearthed a superstar, a turbo-charged Laxman to sit at the top of the order for the coming decade. That hasn’t been the case. Whilst he has intermittently produced wonderful innings (this summer’s innings at The Oval being one of the finest at that historic ground). Outside Asia, Rahul has struggled significantly against pace. That’s holding him back.

It’s a very clear aspect of pace bowling which vexes him. Outside Asia, he averages 35.14 against full balls, 12.09 against good length balls, and 146 against short balls. Pitch it up, and he’s in trouble; that is not what you want from a Test opener.

However, in the middle-order, when bowlers have lost a little zip and the ball is older, Rahul may find himself facing less of those pitched-up deliveries. Demoting him could free him up to play expressively and with reduced risk.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the knock-on effect this could have on India’s No 4. Virat Kohli looked at his imperious best at Perth and any disruption to his performance could be disastrous for India’s chances in this series. Instinctively, people will be cautiously warning against promoting Kohli to No 3, given that he averages 19.14 in the six innings he has played in that position. But Kohli is more than capable of meeting this challenge if Pujara vacates his spot.