Xi’s comment on ‘force’ in Taiwan is not just rhetoric

The island has become a heat source at a time of rising geopolitical temperatures

Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out a template for the unification of Taiwan with mainland China recently. The Chinese leader said the Taiwanese could have their own “private assets, religions, beliefs and legitimate rights” under the sovereign rule of Beijing. Mr Xi’s offer was similar to the “two systems, one country” offer that preceded the takeover of Hong Kong. But it has less credibility. Hong Kong was told it could keep its democratic political institutions. Today, the ex-british colony’s press is repressed, power lies with whosoever Beijing chooses, and democratic activists are harassed or in jail. Today, at a time when China is ruled by an increasingly heavy iron fist, there is no likelihood a communist-ruled Taiwan would enjoy any of the democratic rights it now enjoys.

While Mr Xi said he would use military force if necessary, he was relatively reserved compared to early last year when, speaking of Taiwan, he declared China would never cede “a single inch of our land” and was ready to fight “a bloody battle against our enemies”. His moderation probably derives from the recent electoral setbacks of Taiwan’s ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Previous heavy-handed attempts by Beijing to influence Taiwanese politics have backfired. Polls continue to show a quarter of Taiwanese favour unification.

While sharp words between Taipei and Beijing have been par for the course, the regional environment is much more tense. The US is formalising what has so far been an unwritten defence understanding with Taiwan. Last year, the US legislated the formal exchange of high-level meetings with Taiwan. Recently, President Donald Trump signed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, which pledged regular arms sales to the island nation. Taiwan is not yet a flashpoint, but in an Indo-pacific overshadowed by Sino-american tension, the island has become yet another heat source at a time of rising geopolitical temperatures.