Mayawati throws her hat in the ring

She is back on the national stage but much depends on the tie-up

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati’s birthday has always been a political occasion. Critics may have perceived the grand show of strength and display of presents during her past birthdays as ostentatious. For the party rank and file, and her Dalit voters, it often was a symbol of empowerment, and how far their leader had travelled. But her birthday on Tuesday was particularly special for Ms Mayawati because of the political backdrop. It came three days after she locked in an alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh (UP), and four months before the 2019 general elections.

Using the occasion, Ms Mayawati addressed reporters in her trademark style, with a written statement. Three core messages came through. The first was to BSP and SP workers. She reiterated her commitment to the alliance; she told the workers that they must forget their past rivalries, and work together; and cited the Centre’s investigations against Akhilesh Yadav as proof of its vindictiveness and a signal to her base that this was as much an attack on her. All of this was important to do because Ms Mayawati knows that the alliance’s success rests on both parties working together, and their votes getting transferred to each other. The second message was that, for the alliance, both the BJP and Congress were rivals. She attacked the government for its policies both at the Centre and in the state, for economic mismanagement and divisive politics. She also reminded her audience that the Congress had ruled the country for most years and the BSP’S roots could be traced to its failures. While the alliance’s main battle is with the BJP, Ms Mayawati was seeking to distance herself from both parties. And finally, Ms Mayawati laid out a critique of the farm loan waiver policy implemented so far, by pointing to its limited impact. But then, more contentiously, she argued for a complete waiver of all loans.

Most of all, Ms Mayawati was positioning herself as a national leader. By saying that by virtue of its size and political strength, UP would play a part in determining who would be prime minister, she was throwing her hat in the ring. It is a testament to the swings in Indian politics that a leader whose obituary was being written less than two years ago — remember her losses in 2017 and 2014 — is today a potential PM contender. Whether she makes it or not will depend on how her alliance gamble works.