Stage set for UP thriller in LS polls

DECODING THE UP FACTOR Given the opportunistic alliances, the 11th hour Congress surprise with entry of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains popular in the state even as his party’s brand has dipped, the Uttar Prad

voters across India might question their previous support for the BJP. In April, the Supreme Court introduced new safeguards to prevent the misuse of the Scheduled Castes and Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, enraging many Dalit citizens. Although the government ended up asking the court to review its ruling, the decision wrong-footed it (and it was already being criticized for its lax implementation of the law). More recently, the central government’s move to provide a 10% quota for economically weaker sections has triggered fears that the ruling party could begin to unwind caste-based forms of reservation in favour of class-based quotas.

Lastly, there are issues specific to UP that have galvanized Dalits. In addition to a spate of anti-dalit violence, there is a stark gap between the BJP’S rhetoric of caste inclusion and its upper-caste-dominated administration in UP. Chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s first cabinet contained only four Dalits, and, according to the Hindustan Times, just nine of state’s 75 district police superintendents were Dalits as of July 2017.

ADDRESSING RURAL ANXIETY

The third factor likely to shape electoral outcomes in UP is the rising discontent of India’s rural citizens. Nearly 78% of UP’S population lives in rural areas—only five states have higher rural population shares.

This sizable rural majority spells trouble for the BJP. Many analysts have attributed the BJP’S December losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh to “agrarian distress” amid falling crop prices and growing farmer indebtedness. Indeed, political scientist Neelanjan Sircar found that the BJP performed worst in regions with a large share of agricultural workers, a trend absent in the previous state elections of 2013.

Opposition parties have tapped into farmers’ anger, promising, in several states, to waive their outstanding loans if elected. While the consensus among economists is that farm loan waivers make for bad economics—they create a moral hazard and harm credit culture— their popularity with rural residents makes for good politics.

Agrarian distress opens a number of potential vulnerabilities for the BJP across UP. The state’s 20 most agricultural constituencies include three of the BJP’S seven losses in 2014, along with six of the 17 seats the party won by less than 10 % (see chart 5). These six “vulnerable” constituencies—sitapur, Kaiserganj, Shravasti, Misrikh, Kaushambi, and Hardoi—will be important seats to watch for opposition inroads in 2019 (the latter three are also Sc-reserved).

CONCLUSION

For the BJP, insiders have long claimed that replicating 2014 is a pipe dream. The last general election result was a perfect storm of anti-incumbency, a slumping economy, and a presidential contest with only one compelling candidate. While a sweep of UP may no longer be on the cards, the BJP must retain a strong majority of seats there.

To have a shot at doing so, it will have to energize its base, keep its coalition from fracturing, and address (or, more accurately, be seen to address) the needs of India’s rural dwellers. If it fails, a second term could be jeopardized. To paraphrase an old US electoral maxim: as Uttar Pradesh goes, so goes the nation.