Will the AIADMK alliance sustain the momentum?

Tamil Nadu is witnessing a change with the AIADMKPMK-BJP tie up which could help the government survive

The year 2019 will go down in the history of Tamil Nadu’s politics as more than an election year. The year will be the first to witness in several decades the absence of one formidable leader who drove and redefined the politics of Tamil Nadu for well over half a century and another who worked through a mess to sustain her party as a Dravidian major. But unlike the former, M Karunanidhi, who had a well charted plan for succession in place, the latter, J Jayalalithaa, left her party as exactly as she had inherited it: in a mess.

Yet, for now, the run-up to elections in Tamil Nadu is as heated as any other election the state has faced.

Led by chief minister Edappadi K Pazhanisamy, and deputy chief minister, O Paneerselvam, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has stitched together what is now being seen as a mega alliance. Under this alliance, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) will contest seven seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) five. On the other hand, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has allotted 10 seats to the Congress in its alliance while still being in talks with other partners, including the Left, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi.

Severely criticised on social media for aligning with the AIADMK after declaring repeatedly over the years that the PMK will not ally with any of the Dravidian majors in the state, PMK leaders sought to downplay the backlash. It was only in alliance with either the AIADMK or the DMK that the PMK has managed to win seats although its vote bank of around 6% — concentrated among the Vanniyars — has remained more or less intact in every election.

In the caste driven electoral politics of Tamil Nadu, the Vanniyar vote bank might indeed make a difference to the AIADMK alliance. Yet the opportunist politics of the PMK has not gone down well with the general public — something that the DMK front is hoping to cash in on. While Anbumani Ramadoss does say that no party both at national level and at state level could claim to have not engaged in such politics, he perhaps conveniently overlooks the fact that in doing so, PMK has been more blatant than other political parties in the state. Adopting a similar blatant and cutthroat approach in 2009, the PMK came a cropper despite being accommodated in the AIADMK-LED coalition.

The electoral alliances, especially that of the AIADMK’S, is a marked departure from what happened in 2014. The 2014 election saw both the DMK and the AIADMK fronts keeping the the BJP and the PMK away, leading to the formation of a third front. While the Modi wave swept the country, in Tamil Nadu the third front faced a humiliating defeat with the AIADMK winning 37 of 39 seats.

Evidently, the AIADMK today has stitched up this alliance with the BJP and PMK hoping that the parties will help the state government survive — a scenario perhaps inconceivable under Jayalalithaa. As part of the electoral understanding, the PMK and the BJP have also promised support to the AIADMK in the bypolls to 21 Assembly constituencies — something that will decide the party’s fate as the ruling entity.

With equations having changed, there will be some surprises that may redefine the course of Tamil politics.