In 2017, rape cases were lowest in 4 yrs: NCRB data

NEW DELHI: India recorded 32,599 cases of rape in 2017, the Crime in India report released this week by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) shows. This the lowest number since 2013, the year after the brutal gang rape and murder of a young student in December 2012 in Delhi, shook the country. Rape cases saw a big jump in 2013 and many believed this was a result of better reporting in the aftermath of the protests. The 2017 Crime in India report also shows that rape conviction rates – cases convicted as a percentage of cases where trial was completed – in 2017 was 32.2%, the highest since at least 2001.

These two statistics when read together raise the question whether the 2012 movement is beginning to yield results in India, as conviction rates go up and number of cases begin to come down. Before answering the question, it is worth noting that rape incidence was the lowest since 2013 in only 16 of 34 states and UTS (Union Territories). The analysis excludes Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, as the state underwent a division in 2014. Compared to 2016, the incidence of rape cases reduced in 27 states/uts and increased in nine. Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha were some of the major states that saw an increase in number of reported rape cases between 2016 and 2017.

Interestingly, there is not always a straight correlation between conviction rates and the change in number of reported cases of rape. For example, Uttar Pradesh had a 50% conviction rate for rapes in 2014, higher than any other big state. However, incidence of rape in the state dropped only by 13% between 2014 and 2015, much lower than the drop in several major states. After 2015, a statewise breakup of conviction rates has not been published by NCRB. This makes it difficult to ascertain whether a higher conviction rate led to the low rape figures in 2017.