Understanding the politics of Nitish Kumar

His political vulnerability explains his recent decisions

Indian politics is dominated by regional satraps. They run one-person parties in which the entire structure is dependent on the leader. The space for intra-party dissent is limited or non-existent. They have a loyal social base, primarily, at least in North India, derived from their own caste identities.

In this matrix fits Nitish Kumar. The Janata Dal (United) is his party. His decisions — be it to leave the National Democratic Alliance (2013), ally with Lalu Prasad (2014) or return to the NDA (2018) — reign supreme. But where Kumar is different is that his own social base is extremely limited in the caste-ridden politics of Bihar. The JD(U) has not won a single election on its own, and has always depended on allies, be it the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It is this political vulnerability that explains his decisions. Mr Kumar was not sure whether the BJP would back him as the chief ministerial candidate for assembly polls at the end of 2020, and engaged with both the RJD and the Congress to explore alternatives. But with Amit Shah declaring that Mr Kumar would indeed be the CM face, he has decided to firmly remain within the NDA fold. His decision to expel Pavan Varma and Prashant Kishor — who had both adopted a critical stance against the BJP — was a message that the NDA would stand united. This also means that Mr Kumar, despite indifferent governance in his third term, starts out as the favourite for the Bihar polls in 2020.