‘Flattening the curve’ key in fight against virus spread

A FLATTENED CURVE MEANS THE INFECTION IS SPREADING SLOWLY, WHICH WILL NOT OVERBURDEN INDIA’S HEALTH CARE INFRA AS PATIENTS NEED CRITICAL CARE

NEW DELHI: The “flatten the curve” graph has become the defining image of coronavirus (Covid-19) preparedness, as public health experts say a sudden spike in cases is worse than an uptick even if the number of cases remains largely the same.

Drew A Harris, an assistant professor at the Thomas Jefferson University College of Population Health, who has been credited with the “flatten the curve” graph that has gone as viral in the virtual space as Covid-19 has in the world at large .

“Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It’s the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent,” tweeted@drewaharris.

A flattened curve indicates the infection is spreading slowly, which will not overburden India’s overstretched health care infrastructure as patients need critical care. A high curve means Covid-19 is spreading quickly and many may not get the critical care they need, which will raise the mortality rate.

“We can’t stop community spread, but we can delay it and slow it down to space the demand on health services. This will give everyone the access to health care they need. There will be fewer complications and fewer deaths,” said Dr K Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India.

It’s all about the mathematics. If the number of cases are kept low by tracking, surveillance, treatment and the use of community mitigation methods such as non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIS, it will give state governments more time for scaling up diagnosis and social isolation measures.

“India has done pretty well but we have to stay vigilant because the situation will change once community transmission starts and our testing facilities and hospitals get overstretched,” said Dr Randeep Guleria, head of the department of pulmonology and director, All India Institute of Medical Sciences.

The roll-out of NPIS is based on the pandemic severity and the extent of local transmission. They include personal protection measures such as social isolation, hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette at home, home quarantine of exposed people, the use of face masks when ill. Social distancing by shutting schools, working from home, stopping mass gatherings and environmental measures such as routine cleaning of frequently touched surfaces can be added to the mix to prevent a spike in new infections.