In Delhi, the good and bad news

The outcome of the serological study shows the spread of Covid-19

One-fourth of Delhi’s residents have possibly been infected by Covid-19. The outcome of an official serological study in the city’s 11 districts showed that 23.4% have IGG antibodies. With 21,387 samples, the study was conducted at the end of June, early July, the objective was to assess the spread of Covid-19, and a rigorous sampling method, according to an official release, was followed.

The findings are deeply instructive. For one, it shows that Covid-19 has spread way beyond what official daily cases suggest. Two, the spread of the disease — and the knowledge about the spread — is not necessarily a negative thing, for the study also shows that a majority of these cases have been asymptomatic, and patients have recovered — without even perhaps knowing it. Three, it suggests that the fatality rate due to the disease is possibly lower than what is known so far. India has had, compared to other countries, lower deaths due to Covid-19 in any case, but this is measured against the number of known cases. If the cases are higher, and if deaths are not being underreported, then the fatality figures will go down even more.

But the study also shows the scale of the challenge. If this is the outcome in Delhi, one can assume that the disease has spread far and wide across the country — not measured by official statistics. Delhi has done well in recent weeks by ramping up testing, being transparent, instituting home isolation protocols, increasing hospital beds and care centres. Other states must follow the lead, and the Centre should assist them in conducting serological studies. This will help them respond better. There is also a lesson for citizens who may have turned complacent in recent weeks. You could be next, if you haven’t had it already. Follow basic protocols, wash your hands, wear masks, and restrict activities. You owe it to yourself and to society.