Covid-19: What you need to know today

Sometime today, Saturday, August 22, India’s coronavirus case count will cross the three million mark. India will become the third country to do so after the US and Brazil. If cases in India continue to grow at the same rate, it will overtake Brazil sometime in the next two weeks. India crossed two million cases on August 6 and one million cases on July 17. The country has around 700,000 active cases right now, mostly people with mild infections (or no visible symptoms) who have isolated themselves at home — and some experts say this is the number to look at.

India will see close to 57,000 deaths by the end of Saturday, with around 16,000 of them being registered since it crossed the two million mark. A little over 13,000 of them were registered between the time it crossed one million cases and touched two million. Almost 50% of India’s total deaths were registered in the pandemic’s run to one million cases in the country — an indication of the difficulties faced by administrators in coping with cases (there weren’t enough hospital beds; protective kits for health care workers were in short supply) and health care workers (no one knew which therapies or medicines worked) in the early days of the pandemic.

Some other experts say this (the daily death toll) is the number to look at.

It isn’t clear what explains the increase in the number of deaths corresponding to the third million when compared to the number of deaths corresponding to the second. The number (2,700+) is significant enough to be worrisome — it is the kind of detail that the health ministry and researchers should look at, although it can be explained mathematically by a growing base of active cases.

The big trend — no longer new; the HT newsroom has been writing about it for at least a month — is the fact that the growth in cases (and there is no sign that India has seen its peak) is being driven by states in the hinterland and the peninsula.

Of the first million cases, around 57% came from two states, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, and the Capital. Maharashtra accounted for 28.3% of the million, Tamil Nadu 15.6%, and Delhi 11.8%. Only one other state (Karnataka) accounted for more than 5% of cases (5.1%).

Of the second million cases, around 57% came from four states, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Maharashtra accounted for 19.2% of the million, Andhra Pradesh 15.6%, Tamil Nadu 12.1%, and Karnataka 10.5%. Delhi only accounted for 2.2%. Two other states, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, accounted for at least 5% of cases (6.4% and 5% respectively), and Bihar accounted for 4.6%.

The third million cases largely mirrored the trend of the second. Maharashtra accounted for 18.6% of the million, Andhra Pradesh 14.9%, Karnataka 11.1%, and Tamil Nadu 9.3%. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two of India’s most populous states accounted for 7.2% and 5.3% of the million cases. West Bengal accounted for 4.8% of the cases, and Assam 3.9%. Delhi accounted for just 1.8% of cases.

Interestingly, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, which are still seeing a high number of cases, have seen their contributions drop from the first million to the third. In Maharashtra’s case, the decline is about 10 percentage points, and in Tamil Nadu’s case a little over 6 percentage points. Other states have stepped in to take the slack.

Delhi perhaps has the most reason to celebrate, although as the cautionary tales of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand show, it still needs to remain vigilant. 28.3% 3.8% 5.1% 15.6% 4.3% 2.1% 3.6% 2.0% 1.5% 4.1% 1.0% 2.7% 0.9% 11.8% 4.5% 2.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 15.6% 10.5% 12.1% 6.4% 4.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 18.6% 14.9% 11.1% 9.3% 7.2% 5.3% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%