Assembly polls: Stiff test for the Congress

The Congress has been focused on Punjab, with good reason. Among the states going to polls early next year — Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa and Punjab — it is only in the north Indian state that the party is in power. While it has picked a new Dalit chief minister (CM), the party’s mismanagement of the transition — Captain Amarinder Singh is upset, and there are factions jostling for leadership — will add to its electoral challenge.

But it is not just Punjab. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress continues to suffer from institutional, ideological and political challenges — and the latest symbol of its mismanagement is the exit of Lalitesh Pati Tripathi, a former legislator, and a great grandson of one of the party’s tallest leaders in the state, Kamalapati Tripathi. It hasn’t been able to develop a core vote in the state, and whether it is indeed able to improve its 2017 performance — when it won seven of the 403 seats in the assembly — is open to question. In Manipur, an old Congress stronghold, the BJP picked a former Congress leader, N Biren Singh, and made him CM in 2017. Given the delicate balance between the tribal and non-tribal areas, and the role of resources in polls, the Congress begins as the underdog despite internal cleavages in the BJP.

In Uttarakhand, logically, after the BJP has had to change three CMS in six months, the Congress should have been a natural alternative. But Harish Rawat, the possible CM face, is busy dousing fires in Punjab and the Aam Aadmi Party has made some inroads. In Goa, where, once again the BJP is facing anti-incumbency, the Congress is finding it hard to present itself as a credible alternative given a majority of its legislators moved to the ruling party in the last five years. To be taken seriously in 2024, the Congress needs to get 2022 right.