In hope of better prices, farmers hold back wheat stocks
BATHINDA: Field studies conducted by the state agriculture authorities reveal that districts in the semi-arid belt of Punjab’s Malwa region have recorded a drop of 8-17% in wheat yield even as the market trend indicates a much wider gap in crop arrival in mandis this rabi season as compared to the last year.
According to agriculture experts, this disparity indicates that farmers are holding back a part of their wheat stock, hoping that private players would offer higher prices in the coming weeks. On the ground, even farmers confirm that they are hopeful of a surge in prices. Wheat purchase in Punjab has entered the final stage with the state government on Tuesday announcing the shutting of all mandis from May 5.
Analysis of the state agriculture department and Punjab mandi board data shows that among the seven districts of south Malwa, Fazilka witnessed the widest gap between the results of the crop cutting experiments (CCES) and sales (or arrivals) at mandis till May 3. CCES are conducted every year to get an accurate estimate of the yield of key crops.
Till Tuesday, a total of 5.35 lakh tonnes of wheat was reportedly sold in mandis of Fazilka district, whereas in the 2021-22 rabi season, 7.82 lakh tonne of crop had arrived in the district. It amounts to a 31% drop in the official sale of wheat, whereas the CCE study found a decline of just 9% in yield in comparison to the 2021 figures. Similarly, the mandi board data shows that till Tuesday, government and private parties purchased about 7 lakh quintals of wheat in Muktsar, whereas the district had recorded 9.52 lakh tonnes of sales last season, indicating a drop of 26%. In comparison, the CCE data shows about 11% drop in crop yield.
Muktsar chief agriculture officer Gurpreet Singh said it seems farmers have not sold their entire stock. “This year, crop production was good till February, but the unusually high temperatures in March led the grains to shrivel. There is no doubt that production was hit, but there is a clear difference between scientific sampling on the loss of yield and sale in mandis,” he said.
Moga has been the worst hit in the region, where wheat yield reduced by over 17% during the 2021-22 rabi season. Last year, the district had produced 51.47 quintals per hectare, but this time it dropped to 42.66 quintals per hectare. However, with 5.92 lakh tonne arrival to date, the district recorded 22% decline from the previous year when 7.51 lakh tonne wheat was sold in mandis.
The government had fixed the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,015 per quintal for wheat, though private players have purchased it for up to ₹2,150 at some procurement centres this season. With Ukraine and Russia — two major wheat exporters worldwide — locked in war, Punjab and other wheat-producing states in India were expected to witness an upswing in crop purchases by private players