Will data leak take the sting out of Scorpene? Experts are divided
IN A SPOT Some say it’s too early to jump to conclusions, others believe that incident will help submarine hunters refine search ALL ABOUT THE SUBMARINE
NEW DELHI: Indian and international experts were divided on how damaging the leak of sensitive data on the Scorpene submarine could prove and whether it could have compromised the platform.
Strategic affairs expert Commodore (retired) C Uday Bhaskar said if it is confirmed the data relates to the Indian vessel, then the details put out might compromise the submarine’s credibility. “The DNA of a submarine is about not being detected. If the adversary has all that data, it affects the detectability index of the boat,” said Bhaskar, who heads the Society for Policy Studies.
Gabriel Dominguez, AsiaPacific editor at the IHS Jane’s defence weekly, said, “The risk is even higher if the data has been distributed widely, has reached potential adversaries and regional rivals or is held by individuals or organisations or both that increase the risk of further leaks or hacks.”
He said there could also be implications for the operational effectiveness of the Scorpene fleet and for India acquiring additional Scorpene-class vessels at a time when the Indian Navy’s underwater capabilities are a source of concern. However, admiral (retired) Arun Prakash, who was the navy chief when the Scorpene deal was inked, said, “One can’t really say how much damage has been caused without analysing.”
Prakash said since the documents were categorised only as “restricted,” it was an indication the leaked data was not very sensitive. “If the documents were that sensitive, they would have been marked secret or top secret.”
If found guilty, French shipbuilder DCNS would have violated a critical non-disclosure clause in the $3.5-billion contract with India.
Peter Roberts of the Royal United Services Institute in London said the most serious implications from the leak were the “frequency signature details” of the Scorpene class. “The major risk…is from the exposure of data related to propeller and radiated noise – as a result, Indian submarines will be more vulnerable after the data breach,” he said.
Such leaks will “allow submarine hunters to refine their searches rather than just searching large swathes of water”, he said.
Roberts said DCNS will have to make “some reassurances to the Indian government, and possibly undertake some mitigation work”. “The impact on DCNS is most likely to be highest with the Australian government, who recently (awarded) a large contract to the French shipbuilder, will want reassurance that their data will be protected from prying Chinese eyes,” he said.
Alyssa Ayres, a former US state department official who oversaw relations with India and is now a South Asia expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, described the leak as “terrible news, no question”. “But I think further details are required not only on the leaked info (does this reveal all about the sub?)…as well as on how it happened (was it indeed a hacking? If so, by whom?) before it’s possible to assess how future Indian defence deals might be affected,” she said.
Roberts added the leak will act as a black mark against DCNS in future submarine bidding competitions, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where over 70 submarines will be ordered in the next decade.
(WITH INPUTS FROM PRASUN SONWALKAR IN LONDON AND YASHWANT RAJ IN WASHINGTON) PROJECT-75
THE SUBMARINES are being built with French technology at the
Mazagon Dock Ltd in Mumbai. India has ordered six Scorpene-class submarines in a deal worth
`23,562 crore
THE 66-METRE submarine can dive up to a depth of 300 metres to elude enemy detection.
SIGNIFICANCE
THE NAVY is betting on the project to sharpen its underwater attack capabilities INDIA OPERATES 13 ageing conventional submarines against China, which has 53 diesel-electric attack submarines
LIMITED SERVICEABILITY is also an issue as some boats are not battle-ready at all times PACKING EXTRA PUNCH
SOON, THE fifth and sixth Scorpene boats will be equipped with air-independent propulsion system, which will help the submarines recharge their batteries without surfacing for more than three weeks
With an eye on the swift expansion of the Chinese fleet, India is exploring the possibility of collaborating with a foreign vendor to build six more next-generation submarines DELAY
THE NAVY was supposed to induct its first Scorpene submarine in 2012 but the project was delayed due to problems related to transfer of technology IN 2009, the comptroller and auditor general (CAG) came down heavily on the government for giving undue favours to DCNS while awarding the submarine deal in 2005
Some of the contenders include German conglomerate ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, Spain’s Navantia S-80 class and Sweden’s Saab Kockums NEW DELHI: The chairman of Mazagon Dock Limited, where the Scorpene submarines are being built, has said the Indian programme was well on track and the authenticity of the leaked data needed to be verified.
Speaking to HT from Mumbai on Wednesday, rear admiral Rahul Shrawat said there was no indication that the breach happened at the public sector yard.
“We need to quickly find out if the leaked documents are authentic. If that’s the case, it’s a serious matter and responsibility needs to be fixed but it could be dummy data too,” said Shrawat in his first reaction to the massive leak reported by The Australian newspaper on Tuesday.
French shipbuilder DCNS has provided technology for the `23,562-crore project.
The yard, as planned, would deliver the first of the six submarines to the Indian Navy in early 2017, he said. The remaining are likely to be delivered by 2020.
Documents running into 22,400 pages reportedly detail the combat capabilities of French-designed Scorpene-class submarines.
Shrawat said the alleged leak underlined the need to tighten data security. “We have stringent guidelines but there’s a need to revisit some of those issues,” he said.
Defence minister Manohar The retired Larkins brothers, Air Vice Marshal Kenneth Larkins and Major General Frank Larkins, and their associates were arrested for passing on sensitive military information to the Central
Intelligence Agency. They were convicted for espionage.
Data stolen from the navy’s operations room was leaked by a network of serving and retired officers. The information related to commercial tenders and the navy’s future requirements. Arms contractors seek such knowledge as it gives them an upper hand. One of the accused was related to the then navy chief.
The US army convicted Chelsea Manning, an intelligence analyst, for espionage. He was accused of hundreds of thousands of sensitive military and diplomatic documents to WikiLeaks.
Australian journalist Neville Maxwell made public portions of the controversial report on the reasons behind India’s defeat in the 1962 India-China war. It triggered a fiery debate on India’s worst military defeat and the events that led to it. Maxwell said he did it as wanted to end his complicity in keeping it a secret.
The UK admits that military secrets are being leaked to Russia.
Nato intelligence files meant only for the 28-member alliance had made their way to Kremlin, UK defence secretary Michael Fallon said. Parrikar, who said he learnt of the leak at midnight, described it as a “case of hacking”. The minister has asked the navy chief for a report on the “extent of the leak”.
In April 2016, the French shipbuilder beat off competition from German and Japanese rivals to bag a $40-billion contract to build 12 submarines for Australia.
“The Australian audience appears to be the target of the leak as France won a very lucrative tender there,” Shrawat said.
The alleged leak comes at a time when DCNS is eyeing a `64,000-crore order for six nextgeneration submarines in India.
Shrawat said it was for the French firm to find out what happened, where and at what level.
“The real picture will emerge after the data is studied... and if required the navy and MDL can work jointly on some of those aspects,” he said.