Hillary and Trump tied on eve of big debate

HIS CAMPAIGN WAS IN COMPLETE DISARRAY FOR A SHORT WHILE AS AIDES TRIED TO REBOOT HIM, URGING HIM TO STAY CLOSE TO SCRIPT

Trump trailed Clinton by 8 points in the RealClearPolitics average mid-August, capping a dismal run after the Democratic convention when he clashed with the parents of a fallen Muslim soldier and fought with his own party leaders. He had completely stopped talking about polls by then.

His campaign was in complete disarray for a short while as aides tried to reboot him, urging him to stay close to script and not get himself into trouble with stray remarks — such as the one that made him look like he was inciting violence against Clinton. Trump fired them instead, and got himself a new team headed by Steve Bannon, a hard-charging media executive, and Kellyanne Conway, a well-regarded pollster and strategist, and they set him back on course – disciplined, but himself.

His numbers have been improving since then, helped in no small measure by Clinton’s troubles over her use of a private server as secretary of state, and a health scare on September 11, when she appeared unable to walk or stand by herself.

On September 18, the two candidates were separated by only 0.9 points — Clinton was 44.9% to Trump’s 44% — which was a statistically insignificant gap, and encouraging enough for Trump to start talking numbers again.

In the most recent poll, a weekly tracking by LA Times with the USC (University of Southern California) for a period ending Saturday showed Trump leading Clinton by 4 points — by 46% to 42%; to the 5-point lead given to him by Rasmussen.

But Americans don’t directly elect their president. The Electoral College does, and it is the aggregate of the members of the US House of Representatives and the Senate, and three members allotted to the District of Columbia. The total is 538.

According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton had a grip on 198 to Trump’s 165, with 175 up for grabs. The winning threshold is 274, and FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton will win 284.9 of them and Trump 252.8.