Mix of Modi wave, shrewd strategy decimates rivals
WINNING COMBO BJP’s gamble with ticket distribution, clever play of Hindu card pay dividends in heartland battle
As the scale of the BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh became clear on Saturday, there was only one question being asked. How did the saffron party do it?
A mix of PM Narendra Modi’s magic, careful social engineering, a risky but smart ticket distribution strategy, the use of the Hindu card, and errors by the opposition catapulted the BJP to power in Lucknow.
Travelling on the ground, it was astonishing to see the admiration Modi evoked.
Some said he was a decisive leader. Others said he had improved India’s image abroad. Many pointed to tangible schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana or Ujwala. His demonetisation move, supporters claimed, showed his willingness to take on the rich.
But the majority did not even have specific answers. It was an emotional connect, a deep and abiding faith that the man meant well, and the man would transform India and UP.
And when Modi made this his election, promising to the people that there would be development if the government at the Centre and the state was the same, this faith only appeared to have doubled.
The BJP calculated that Muslims, and a majority of Yadavs and Jatavs would not vote for the party. This would leave 55-60% of the electorate for BJP to target.
And to do this, it embarked on a three pronged strategy — appoint someone from a non-Yadav OBC community (Keshav Prasad Maurya) as state president; appoint office bearers in districts from these communities; and give them a high number of tickets.
They also had a risky ticket distribution exercise.
A leader had explained that in close to 100 seats, tickets were given to ‘outsiders’ only because they were seen as ‘winnable’.
The saffron party also expanded in rural areas. Of the 403 constituencies, 299 were rural. The BJP held a first-of-itskind ‘maati-tilak pratigya’ (pledge for soil) campaign where farmers were galvanised to back the party, organised ‘parivartan chaupals’ (village meetings for change) and ‘alaav sabhas’ (bonfire meets) to engage the rural poor. ‘Lotus meets’ were also organised to help cadre mingle with the poor in a carnival-like atmosphere.
The BJP has not only won this election, but also transformed its own party’s character, and has created a generation of leaders. The party also carefully played the Hindu card.
It is difficult for the BJP to win an election in states with a substantial Muslim presence — for the simple reason that it starts from a minus 20% disadvantage.
It has to rely on the rest of the electorate, and to unite them, it has to infuse its campaign with a flavour of communal polarisation.
In west UP, candidates proudly declared themselves to be the epitome of Hindu pride. PM Modi himself, couched under the framework of non-discrimination, brought up Diwali and Ramzan, kabristan and shamshanghat. Party chief Amit Shah directly accused the Samajwadi Party government of dispensing development benefits based on religious and caste identity.
There was latent resentment among many Hindu communities at what they perceived as the administration’s pro-Muslim tilt. There was also a degree of annoyance at both the alliance and the BSP’s efforts to woo Muslims and make that the centre piece of their respective campaigns. This provided enough room to the BJP to consolidate others.