Merkel expected to win but all eyes on coalition
BERLIN: At first glance, Germany’s federal election looks like a done deal — all major polls predict Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives to come in first, a result that should mean no political upheaval in Europe’s biggest economy.
But that’s the first glance. The devil will be in the detail of what coalition is likely to come after Sunday’s vote, and with it whether Merkel’s economic policies can remain in situ.
Those policies have reigned over booming growth and rising consumer confidence.
The status quo, though, will depend to a certain extent on how Merkel’s centre-right CDU/CSU bloc fares compared with her incumbent junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD).
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) party, the probusiness Free Democrats (FDP) and others could potentially hold the balance.
So a few percentage points will decide Merkel’s coalition options and her policy agenda for the next four years — with consequences for Berlin’s stance on euro zone integration, tax cuts, state spending and the privatisation of state assets.
Coalition building will be complicated by the fact that the antiimmigration AFD and the socially liberal FDP are forecast this year to easily pass the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag lower house of Parliament after failing in 2013.
This means that traditional two-party alliances — such as a “black-yellow” coalition between Merkel’s conservatives and the FDP or a “red-green” coalition between the centre-left SPD and the Greens — are likely to fall short of a stable majority.
The most likely scenarios are therefore another “grand coalition” between Merkel’s bloc and the SPD -- usually a last resort combination -- or a three-way alliance untested at national level between the conservatives, the FDP and the Greens — which have been dubbed the “Jamaica coalition” due to the parties’ colours.