Local dynamics may hold sway in Himachal results
BATTLE READY The state has opted for ‘change’ in every election since 1990
SHIMLA/HAMIRPUR/UNA: Shakuntala Devi looked on nonchalantly as a group of men on motorbikes with saffron flags drove past her. She chatted with neighbours in Sumurkhurd — a village in Himachal Pradesh — about monkeys, pigs and “jungli cows” that came down from the hills and damaged her maize crop.
Their hopes hinged on wheat, a bigger concern than the fate of CM Virbhadra Singh or his challenger, BJP’S Prem Kumar Dhumal. Not that the government didn’t touch their lives. Shakuntala Devi gets ₹650 per month as widow pension. Many in Sumurkhurd got ₹12,000 for toilet construction and ₹75,000 for a house. But they were not sure which government — the central or state — is behind these benefits. Such confusion abounds in the hill state. “I am voting for Virendra Kanwal (three-term BJP MLA seeking re-election), of course,” said Thakur Chhajuram. But it’s not because of the NDA . “Kanwal is “very humble”.
“Besides, it’s good to have the same government at the Centre as well,” explained Chhajuram. This is the narrative the BJP is building on in its attempt to dislodge the six-term CM Singh.
But on the ground, the dominant narrative revolved around a state that has opted for “change” in every election since 1990 . “It’s a very close contest this time. Raja sahib (Virbhadra Singh) has surprised everyone with his spirited campaign,” said Dr Harish Thakur, head of political science at Himachal Pradesh University.
The Congress made GST and demonetisation its central plank but these issues didn’t seem to draw much traction beyond media headlines. Nishi Devi of Sumurkhurd village told HT she had “no evidence” but was sure black money” was unearthed.
The apple-growers in JubbalKotkhai and Theog on the outskirts of Shimla were vocal critics
of demonetisation but that may not help the Congress as the discourse is dominated by the failing law and order situation following the gang rape and murder of a 16-year-old in Kotkhai.
The BJP’S decision to make the gang rape case a poll plank seemed to be drawing traction but its attack on Singh over corruption may not have stuck. “When he (the CM) comes for Janata Darbar every morning, he gives out ₹5,000-6,000 to anyone in need. He has so much ancestral property. Accusing him of corruption worth ₹5 crore is only politics,” said Hariram Thakur of Arki, Singh’s new constituency.
The sentiment was not localised. “Corruption is not a big issue. Most are not convinced about allegations against Virbha-
dra Singh,” said Dr Thakur.
The BJP has kept the heat on. “Look at mining mafia, forest mafia! In Chamba and Shimla, thousands of trees were felled and illegally sold. Kidnapping of kids, Gudiya case… we have been raising our voice on so many issues and here the CM is busy applying for bail and appearing in court,” Anurag Thakur, BJP MP from Hamirpur and Dhumal’s son, said. In a state where Rajputs constitute over one-fourth of the population, Dhumal’s declaration as the BJP’S chief ministerial candidate was seen as an attempt to woo the dominant community.
But some in the party are worried about the implications of denying two prominent Brahmin leaders—shanta Kumar and JP Nadda. Brahmins constitute
about one-fifth of the population.
In the absence of a wave in favour of any party, local factors could influence the outcome. Dhumal was facing a stiff challenge from Congress candidate and his erstwhile protégé, Rajender Singh Rana, in Sujanpur.
Intra-party rebellion could also mar the Congress’ prospects. For instance, Vidya Stokes’ failure to contest from Theog seat, and the nomination of a young leader, significantly undermined the party’s chances . The Congress said it was confident of “a clear victory” in 32 of 68 constituencies. BJP sources said the party was winning at least 45 seats “which might go up”. On December 18, when results are declared, it will be clear which party caught the pulse of the people.