Retail inflation

There is little likelihood of rate cuts in the immediate future, with the CPI inflation expected to track a rising trend in the second half of the financial year and print at around 4.5% in March 2018, analysts said.

To be sure, the GST Council’s decision on Friday to cut the tax rate on 177 items from 28% to 18%, leaving only 50 items under the highest tax slab, is expected to partially ease inflationary pressure on consumers as and when companies start passing on the benefits by cutting prices.

“We continue to expect an extended pause amid non-unanimous voting by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) in the December 2017 policy review,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at rating company ICRA Ltd.

Calls for RBI to lower rates had become louder after economic growth decelerated to 5.7% in the quarter ended June, the slowest pace in three years.

The MPC in August cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6%, the lowest since November 2010. The panel left rates unchanged in its October review. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

RBI has raised its inflation target to 4.2-4.6% for the second half of this fiscal year from 4-4.5%, reflecting the combined impact of unfavourable base effects, the upturn in food prices and the impact of the increase in house rent allowance announced by the central government.

While rising crude oil prices, already at two-year high, led to fuel inflation of 6.36% in October, compared with 5.56% a month ago, housing inflation rose to a 40-month high of 6.7% in October, pointing to the staggered impact of the revision on house rent allowances (HRA) for central government employees under the 7th Pay Commission.

Indicating the adverse macroeconomic impact of the rise in crude oil prices, global financial services company Nomura Holdings Inc. said every $10 rise per